The New Era: What will the era of rotating wings bring at the 2026 Australian GP?

What happened at testing?

If I could pick a movie to describe the 2026 Formula One season thus far, it would be Frozen. I know that sounds incredibly silly, but we are truly going "into the unknown." Free practices have given some additional information, but four teams have finished in the top three in the two sessions thus far in Melbourne.

The unknown isn't helped by the quite clear attempts to sandbag by the main championship contenders. Mercedes, McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari were all pointing at each other as the fastest and accusing the others of not showing their true pace. The truth is that those eight cars will be very tight while others will struggle with reliability issues. Red Bull have Verstappen and a competitive-looking Hadjar in a car that looks drivable, McLaren have the reigning world champion (hotline?) and should be very competitive, Ferrari have innovations like their strange but speed-increasing rotating wing, and Mercedes seem to be the only team with the power unit of their name to not have major issues.

The biggest stories came out of the midfield. Audi look as though they will be immensly competitive, at least in Melbourne, at least more than expected. Racing Bulls seem to have two capable drivers and Lindblad seems to have somewhat learned how to live life in F1. Williams remain overweight but will need to shed to the minimum weight throughout the 2026 campaign. Haas are rapid but may be lacking the endurance and lap times to put Bearman on a podium. Alpine seem to have what it takes to get Colapinto some points and compete for fifth. Cadillac are expectedly slow in their first F1 season but don't seem as far off as would be expected. And of course, Aston Martin's car does not function at all, which we'll get into plenty.

FP1 and FP2 Breakdown

Free practice, as I said before, told us very little about the true running order. FP1 was all Ferrari, as the Italians led the way in the first true session of 2026. Leclerc dominated by almost half a second over his teammate Hamilton, who in turn led the Red Bull duo of Verstappen and Hadjar. A second off the leader was rookie Lindblad, with Mercedes and Audi placing both drivers in the top ten. Cadillac and Alpine were the slowest cars to run, with Norris having gearbox issues and the Aston obviously not being able to run as the drivers attempt to avoid an unstable car that risks nerve damage.

FP2 was the opposite, with the Mercedes teams leading the way with McLaren's home hero Piastri at the top followed by Mercedes's Antonelli and Russell both within 32 hundreths. Ferrari and Red Bull again placed both drivers in the top ten, and Lindblad, Ocon, and Piastri's teammate Norris all finishing in the category as well. Williams and Alpine were again slow, with Cadillac as the obvious slowest of the teams in competition and Aston again finishing dead last by over a second to the newest team to the grid (although both drivers were able to get more laps).

Podium Predictions

Here are my predictions for the podium finishers at the 2026 Australian Grand Prix:

Australian Grand Prix

1. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) - I think the most likely outcome for this race is that Max does his part for his championship hopes and wins this race. He has a good record and great memories in Abu Dhabi and has won the last two races.

   
   

2. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - Lando looks the faster of the two McLarens this weekend and topped the first two practice sessions. He must stand on the podium this weekend to absolutely guarantee his first championship, and it looks like he will take the title.

   
   

3. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - With Oscar Piastri way off the pace this weekend, it seems like we'll get a non-McLaren and non-Max car on the podium. Russell has looked very quick around Yas Marina so far.

Five Spicy Hot Takes

Now, let’s spice things up with some bold hot takes for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, rated from 1 to 5 spicy pepper emojis:

1. 🌶️ - Audi score points. This is much less of a hot take than if I had said this a couple of months ago, but it is still going to be a difficult task. But, with Aston and Cadillac practically out of the picture, I believe Audi can get a car in the top ten out of eighteen.

   
   

2. 🌶️🌶️ - Cadillac beat someone not named Aston Martin. On reflection, this may deserve to be a hotter take, but I feel like my third, fourth, and fifth takes are a bit more spicy. With that in mind, I do think reliability will play a huge role in this race, and if Cadillac can get a car over the line, odds are that they beat at least one driver not named Alonso or Stroll.

   
   

3. 🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Aston don't finish in the points...but they do finish half the race. Aston are having serious issues with their Honda power unit, but FP2 was encouraging that the drivers could potentially drive more laps during the Grand Prix. Assuming they qualify within the 107% rule, I see Alonso finishing 29 laps.

   
   

4. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Hadjar beats Verstappen. Verstappen has lost 32 times in a Grand Prix to his teammate. Hadjar crashed on the formation lap at last year's Australian Grand Prix. How, how, how could Hadjar possibly beat Verstappen. My answer is simple: Hadjar has the mindset Tsunoda and Lawson didn't coming into Red Bull, and is ready to win.

   
   

5. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Mercedes don't finish on the podium. For all of the hype surrounding Mercedes this winter, not seeing them on the podium would be a shock to the system. However, as I said earlier, I think that the top four teams (assuming reliability isn't an issue) are very, very close, and Leclerc, Piastri, and Verstappen have all shown incredible potential in addition to Russell and Antonelli.

What if...Africa

The Decision

Survivor: Africa features more even more history. We have our first tied challenge (since countback is still a stalemate), our first tribe swap (though not a modern swap), the first season without a straight pagonging, and our first final tribal to not end in a 4-3 vote. There are a few honorable mentions for me in this season that I thought would be intriguing to explore the aftermath of but did not eventually make the cut. However, writing about Clarence not stepping off of the challenge at the Final 10 would lead to his vote-off later and a pagonging, and Teresa not voting for Lex would lead to even more of a pagonging. So, I think the best compromise is to allow the Lex and Kelly dynamic to unfold while simultaneously completely changing the course of the game at the Final 9 vote. So, without further ado, what if...Brandon voted for Lex at the Final 9 instead of Kelly?

The Outcome

So, the most obvious outcome is at the Final 9, in which Samburu somehow combines forces and votes all together with Kelly to blindside Lex:

Kelly --> Lex

Lex --> Kelly

Teresa --> Lex

Frank --> Lex

Kim P --> Lex

Ethan --> Kelly

Kim J --> Kelly

Tom --> Kelly

Brandon --> Lex

And in a 5-4 vote, original Samburu evens the playing field with original Boran, though the dynamics are not quite as simple as the merged teribes of the first two seasons. However, in Episode 10, despite being willing to vote with Teresa and especially Frank of the older branch of original Samburu, tensions continue to rise between the generations. The tribes sit at 4-4, but Kelly does not want to side with original Boran and Brandon and Frank are unwilling to work together. Brandon and Frank win the reward challenge and get the chance to bond, but are still hesitant to form a deal and continue to work on opposing sides. Tom wins the Episode 10 immunity challenge and ensures he is safe from the chaotic tribal council to come:

Kelly --> Frank

Frank --> Brandon

Brandon --> Frank

Kim J --> Brandon

Kim P --> Frank

Ethan --> Brandon

Tom --> Brandon

Teresa --> Brandon

Since Tom and Frank bond and Lex and Kim Johnson had been on a tribe with Frank and Teresa, the original Borans side with the original older Samburu tribe to take out Brandon in a 5-3 vote, giving the old Samburu and core Boran alliance the numbers. The Brandon blindside leaves Kim Powers as the only young Samburu member left, and Kelly remains in the middle and an easy target. However, Frank begins to become intolerable for the tribe. Ethan wins the immunity necklace and the tribe has to decide between the dangerous middle in Kelly and whether they can stand Frank:

Frank --> Kelly

Kim P --> Frank

Kim J --> Frank

Ethan --> Frank

Tom --> Frank

Kelly --> Frank

Teresa --> Frank

And in a 6-1 vote just like in the show Frank goes home, leaving Boran with a 4-2 majority and core Boran with half of the members. Tom wins the Episode 12 immunity challenge and the Boran three have to decide where to put their votes, but the main question is whether the three in the minority can get an alliance together in time for tribal council:

Kelly --> Ethan

Teresa --> Ethan

Tom --> Kelly

Ethan --> Kelly

Kim J --> Kelly

Kim P --> Ethan

The minority is able to get an alliance together but on the revote Kim Powers and Teresa flip knowing that Kelly is going home on a countback nonetheless:

Teresa --> Kelly

Tom --> Kelly

Kim P --> Kelly

Kim P --> Kelly

Meaning that by Episode 13 the Boran three have the majority at Final 5. Ethan wins immunity and the Boran three have to choose who to send home from the minority. Teresa and Kim Powers make pleas with Tom to flip but he utlimately holds steady with his alliance to the Final 4:

Teresa --> Kim J

Ethan --> Kim P

Kim J --> Kim P

Kim P --> Kim J

Tom --> Kim P

And Teresa is the outsider at the Final 4. However, Teresa pitches to Kim Johnson that she is the clear outsider in the Boran three and that Tom and Ethan are the clear pair, and Kim Johnson wins her first immunity of the season and becomes the clear swing vote between the Ethan and Tom alliance and Teresa:

Ethan --> Teresa

Teresa --> Ethan

Tom --> Teresa

Kim J --> Ethan

And Kim Johnson flips on her alliance, holding steady on the revote as she realizes her odds of winning are much lower if Teresa goes home:

Tom --> Teresa

Kim J --> Ethan

And in firemaking the survivalist and athletic Ethan eliminates Teresa from the game to send himself to the Final 3. Kim Johnson wins the Final 3 immunity challenge and now has to vote between Tom and Ethan and choose who to sit next to at Final Tribal Council:

Kim J --> Tom

Kim Johnson was very close with Ethan and votes out Tom, saying that she would rather sit next to Ethan even if he was going to be harder to beat than Tom, who she viewed as mysoginistic. At an identical Final Tribal Council to real life, Ethan still botches both Brandon and Kim Powers's votes, and at the live show Jeff reads the votes:

Brandon --> Kim J

Tom --> Ethan

Lex --> Ethan

Kim P --> Kim J

Kelly --> Ethan

Frank --> Ethan

Teresa --> Ethan

The winner of Survivor: Africa...Ethan! Yes, those are the exact same votes as written down on parchment. I think part of the magic of the merge of Survivor: Africa is that the alliance dynamics were so fluid that the solid Borans can still make it all the way, even without Lex. Frank and Brandon's dynamic completely blows up Samburu post-merge and the early young vs. old rivalry from the tribe makes it almost impossible for any minority alliance to stop Ethan, Tom, and Kim Johnson from steamrolling to the end. Kim Johnson's immunity run to end Survivor: Africa also makes it very difficult to see any changes to the endgame of the season other than Lex's exclusion due to the what if... of the experiment. Overall, I think that the fact that the season ended the same way speaks to how underrated of a season Survivor: Africa was, and we got to focus a lot more on Boran's underdog story in this version. However, I think things should change once we get to Survivor: Marquesas and the first upended alliance in Survivor history.

What if...The Australian Outback

The Decision

Survivor: The Australian Outback is very different to analyze than Survivor: Borneo. While Borneo had minimal strategy, only one alliance, and a long immunity run that led to the outcome not being changed, The Australian Outback had more concrete relationships and people had an idea of what to expect. To give an example, there were only a couple of unanimous vote-outs in Borneo, but in Australia, the first two votes were both 7-1. The Australian Outback was also the first season to feature a countback, and there are two to choose from. For me, this double-tie situation is fascinating, and the countback rule was only a part of the show for a few seasons. Considering this, the new question is which countback to switch and to what. I think that the Keith-Mitchell tie is far too early to reverse, and the much more meaningful tie is between Varner and Colby at the final ten. So, what if...we use a modern rock draw instead of the countback at the final ten of the Australian Outback?

The Outcome

So what would have happened? After the revote, we simulate the rock draw between the eight without votes since they can't come to a unanimous decision:

Jerri --> White

and in the first tribal council rock draw, Jerri goes home, leaving an alliance of five against an alliance of four. This also means that we already have more voting changes in our twisted version of The Australian Outback than in the entire of Borneo, and expect a lot more to change. The second episode of the post-merge, or episode eight, begins and the Ogakor-Kucha divide is still strong, with Kucha having the numbers. Amber wins reward and likely brings Elisabeth with her to try to grasp on to any footing with her tribe down in the numbers. Keith still wins immunity, meaning Amber, Colby, and Tina are most likely to go as they are in the minority alliance. Colby is by far the biggest physical and strategic threat of those who are left:

Varner --> Colby

Tina --> Nick

Colby --> Nick

Amber --> Nick

Elisabeth --> Colby

Rodger --> Colby

Nick --> Colby

Alecia --> Colby

Keith --> Nick

and America's man goes home at the final nine, leaving Kucha with a 5-3 majority. In episode ten, the Kuchas finally have the numbers to ponder taking out one of their own, and Elisabeth wins reward and takes Rodger from her alliance. Nick clutches up immunity to ensure he isn't a target for a Kucha flip, and the targets are either Keith for finally not having immunity or Alecia for being a huge physical threat:

Varner --> Keith

Tina --> Alecia

Amber --> Alecia

Elisabeth --> Keith

Rodger --> Keith

Nick --> Keith

Alecia --> Keith

Keith --> Alecia

sending Keith home in a 5-3 vote and giving Kucha a huge 5-2 advantage heading into episode eleven. The survivors replenish their food sources at the auction, and Nick edges out Alecia in the immunity challenge once again. Amber is well-insulated with Elisabeth and Rodger, and Nick and Alecia continue their alliance, leaving Tina and Varner un-aligned but in the swing vote position. Tina sides with the former, and so does Varner due to being close with Rodger:

Varner --> Alecia

Tina --> Alecia

Amber --> Alecia

Elisabeth --> Alecia

Rodger --> Alecia

Nick --> Tina

Alecia --> Tina

leaving Nick on the very bottom of The Australian Outback. Episode twelve rolls around, and Varner wins reward, followed by Amber winning immunity. The main Kucha alliance still holds control of the game, but the decision is between keeping the alliance strong or voting out a core alliance threat:

Varner --> Nick

Tina --> Nick

Amber --> Nick

Elisabeth --> Nick

Rodger --> Nick

Nick --> Tina

and the Kucha three decide on the former, sending Nick out of the game and solidifying their final five alliance. In the final five, Tina wins reward and Varner wins immunity, but it doesn't matter as he is the swing vote between the two halves of the alliance:

Tina --> Elisabeth

Amber --> Elisabeth

Elisabeth --> Tina

Rodger --> Tina

Varner --> Elisabeth

with Varner realizing that Elisabeth is a big threat to win the game due to her likely getting sympathy votes (yes, Varner has a strategy). In episode fourteen, Varner wins the car (curse), and Rodger wins immunity, meaning the alliance has to turn on itself:

Tina --> Varner

Amber --> Varner

Rodger --> Tina

Varner --> Tina

and with the countback twist no longer existing, Amber and Rodger can unanimously decide or draw rocks, and Rodger switches his vote to Varner:

Amber --> Varner

Rodger --> Varner

sending him home as the penultimate jury member. In the finale, Tina wins due to knowing the most about the jury members, and chooses to sit next to Rodger at final tribal due to him being much less of a strategic threat than Amber and mostly a goat:

Tina --> Amber

so Tina and Rodger pitch their cases to the jury, Tina's about her strategic maneuvering despite being in the minority and Rodger about loyalty. I also want to try something fun and reveal the votes in the way they would be on TV:

Colby --> Tina

"Your game has been so good, and if I would have wanted anyone to win besides me, it would have been you."

Elisabeth --> Rodger

"You did such a great job both in the game and in explaining your game at tribal, and I couldn't be rooting for you more."

Varner --> Rodger

"Rodger. Two votes Rodger"

Keith --> Tina

"Tina. We're tied. Two votes Tina, two votes Rodger."

Nick --> Tina

"Tina. Three votes Tina."

Amber --> Tina

"The winner of Survivor: The Australian Outback...Tina! The last one is yours as well."

So, once again, we have the exact same winner, and I think that speaks to the versatility and adaptability of both games. I mean, Tina was so, so, likeable, and her connection to Amber allows her to get in with the Kucha majority. As in her original game, she stays under the radar, and is able to outspeak her opponent at final tribal after taking out her biggest threat in Amber. It's a very different game with very different personalities and deep runs, but the endgame is similar. Tina deserved to win in 2001, and she deserves to win it now...