The most in-depth piece I have ever written: Your FULL March Madness Preview

Note: The article is quite long so I would recommend picking and choosing what you read based on which teams and matchups interest you. Full predictions are at the end.

Welcome to the First Four! The best time of the year is finally here. We made it through another season of college basketball. Now only sixty-seven incredible forty-minute thrillers stand between us and the crowning of a national champion. The question now is who? Who will storm the courts in the first round after making program history? Who will be the dark horse? Who are our cinderellas? Who will be in San Antonio? And who will cut down the nets? These are the questions that millions of passionate and knowledgeable fans try and fail to answer every single year. And to help you better understand the bracket, let’s break down who to watch and stay away from, who is underseeded, which teams should be here and which should not, and which are in the most elite tier truly contending for the title. Let’s break it down by region, creating a tier list, identifying the most fascinating squads, and forecasting the madness of March.

First let’s define some things. The region favorites are, well, the region favorites. These are the teams that you and everyone else are likely picking to head to San Antonio and represent the South. These are the teams who have performed well all season, have the chemistry, and don’t have too many glaring weaknesses. Then there are the dark horses, who are likely underseeded, can go on a hot streak, and about whose potential we do not know. After this is the cinderellas, the mid- to low- majors who have a secret weapon that can enable them to go on a run to the Sweet 16 or farther. The fourth section is the other top programs, the teams that aren’t as notable but in my opinion don’t have the special spark to reach the Final Four. And lastly is the teams that are happy to be here, the teams who realistically have no chance to win their first game, and definitely can’t reach the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. I won’t write a section about every team, only the ones who are notable and who I think will be relevant to your bracket-making, but I will still categorize them. Without further ado, your number one overall seed…

South (Atlanta)

Region Favorites:

Auburn

There isn’t much I need to say about Auburn. Their resume truly speaks for itself. I mean, sixteen, yes sixteen Q1 victories. That includes victories over Houston, Iowa State, Purdue, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama. Eleven victories over teams ranked at the time Auburn played them and a whopping nineteen victories over teams in the field. While this could obviously speak for itself, we can go far more in-depth. The Tigers pile on over eighty-three points a game, average thirty-seven boards, and almost shoot fifty percent from the field. Four of their seven players that average over twenty points a game average thirty-nine percent or higher from three, and that doesn’t even include star and Wooden Award candidate Johni Broome, who averages a eighteen-ten double-double and shoots over fifty-percent from the field. 

Iowa State

While not quite as statistically impressive or fascinating as Auburn, Iowa State poses a dangerous threat for others in the South region. This is a resilient and experienced team, returning nine players from their visit to the Sweet 16 last season. However, the Cyclones will be without Keshon Gilbert, a key player who sank forty-eight percent of his shots and averaged thirteen of Iowa State’s eighty. The former Big 12 champions will have to once again rely on what has anchored them all season: defense. Gilbert will be a huge loss, as he was a main defensive contributor and grabbed more rebounds than a typical guard. With Gilbert, the team allowed only sixty-seven points per game, and if they can keep the number in a similar range, the Cyclones can go far this March.

Michigan State

Izzo has led the Spartans to yet another terrific season, led by star guards Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson. The team is definitely lacking significant offensive firepower, as they only shoot a measly thirty percent from three and forty-six percent from the field. They also only score seventy-eight points a game. However, they are one of the top defensive teams in the country, managing forty team rebounds blocking five and stealing six. They also only turn the ball over about eleven times per game. The runaway Big 10 regular season champions only allow sixty-seven points and have the ability to shut down any offense in the country. 

Dark Horses:

Creighton

Creighton is one of the most intriguing teams in the country, as they don’t have any notable wins outside of the Big East except for a home-court victory over Kansas. The Bluejays are anchored by four players who all score at least eleven points, obtain four rebounds, and shoot thirty percent from the three point line per game. Kalkbrenner has been a notable star, not only averaging almost nine boards but also shooting sixty-five percent from the field as a center. The Jays have their work cut out for them: they take on an underseeded Louisville team fresh off of an ACC title game appearance and would then likely take on number one overall Auburn in the second round. Talk about a gauntlet. 

New Mexico

The Lobos are another team we truly don’t have much information on. They have beaten fellow March warriors UCLA and VCU, hung with St. John’s before dropping the ball late and losing by fourteen, and the rest of their schedule was pretty much just Mountain West opponents. They hold sole possession of the regular season Mountain West title, but the loss to Boise State in the semifinals of the tournament will be a concern. They swept Utah State, although one win came at the beginning of Utah State’s slide towards the end of the season, and split with the Aztecs. The Lobos have a top twenty-five defense, grabbing forty boards and stealing the ball nine times. Team height will be a concern, as their tallest player is 6’10”, but the Lobos have shown they can play excellent defense even without that presence. Donovan Dent will definitely be a player to look out for, as he averages twenty points and shoots forty-two percent from three. 

Cinderellas:

UC San Diego

I think there are two pretty obvious teams that can go in this section. UC San Diego may be the biggest question mark in the tournament, let alone the region. The Tritons boast an early victory over Utah State, although that has aged poorly as the Aggies struggled in Mountain West play. They also lost very close games against UC Irvine and San Diego State, although they still won the season series over the former. And that’s it. That’s it for their losses. Other than that, they’ve pretty much just beaten teams outside of the top one hundred in NET, mostly those in the Big West Conference. In my mind, UCSD has a pretty favorable matchup with Michigan, who outsize them but don’t have the high-caliber three-point offense to match the Tritons. The debutants could stun the Big 10 Champions, who will likely be fatigued after close games throughout their conference tournament. And if the other team in the cinderella section wins as well? Expect the Tritons in the Sweet 16. 

Yale

361 days ago, the Ivy League Champion Yale Bulldogs stepped onto the court opposite one of the most statistically impressive teams of the 2024 NCAA men’s basketball season. They then proceeded to pull off the impossible, defeating the fourth-seeded Auburn Tigers and advancing to the second round of March Madness. This time, Yale matches up with a team who has obvious strengths but glaring weaknesses. Yale’s first-round opponent, the Texas A&M Aggies, are the worst three-point shooting team in the entire field, average ten less points scored per game than the Bulldogs, and don’t have a player who averages more than sixteen points. Yale meanwhile shoots thirty-eight percent from three, grabs plenty of boards, only turns the ball over ten times per game, and shoots fifty percent from the field. 2024-25 Texas A&M is known for their rebounding, but Yale is as well and the Bulldogs match up well in size with the Aggies. It looks more likely than last year, but how far can the Bulldogs go?

Missing that spark:

Texas A&M

Michigan

Ole Miss

Marquette

Louisville

San Diego State

Straight to Cancun:

North Carolina

Lipscomb

Bryant

Alabama State

Saint Francis (PA)

East (Newark)

Region Favorites:

Duke

I don’t think I really have to state much of the obvious here. If Cooper Flagg comes back just as healthy as he was before his injury, the Blue Devils are one of the most dangerous teams in the country. They have by far the biggest average margin of victory in the entire country, beating many ACC schools by thirty or forty points. They boast victories over number one overall Auburn, Arizona, and a three-sweep over rivals North Carolina. The double ACC champions have one of the most high-caliber offenses in the country, scoring eighty-two points per game, shooting a respectable thirty-eight percent from three, and only turning the ball over nine and a half times per game. The Blue Devils are deep, with ten stars who play over ten minutes, eight of whom average at least thirty percent from beyond the arc. They also hold a height advantage, led by 7’2” center Khaman Maluach. Duke will have to prove that one-and-dones can cut down the net, as they will lose the majority of the squad to lottery picks, including the aforementioned projected number one overall Flagg.

Alabama

If you don’t think defense wins championships, then you’ve found your squad for this year. Last year’s Alabama team had a high-powered offense and not much defense, but this year Alabama averages NINETY-ONE points per game, constantly chucking up threes and converting on about thirty-five percent of them. Alabama will be challenged by their height, which is small compared to many of the teams in the region. It will be a gauntlet, with the Crimson Tide set to potentially play any of St. Mary’s, Vanderbilt, VCU, BYU, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Duke during their run. Alabama will have to score enough from their chances as they won’t manage many offensive rebounds. If the Tide are in a scoring drought, expect their run to end. However, they’ve proved themselves through victories over Houston, Texas A&M, and Auburn and a buzzer beater loss to Tennessee.

Arizona

The Wildcats have completely turned their season around. Arizona began the season with bad losses to Wisconsin, Duke, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and UCLA but were one of the teams to watch once they got settled into Big 12 play. Arizona now boasts wins over BYU, Kansas, West Virginia, a sweep of Baylor, a three game sweep of Texas Tech, and two very tight losses to Houston. Arizona has definitely earned their right to at least a four seed, boasting a defense that can keep games with slower paced teams tight and an offense that can keep up with the fast play of teams like Alabama, Texas Tech, and Iowa State. The Wildcats depend on their small rotation for eighty-one points per game and are excellent interior shooters, but they are one of the weaker three-point squads and don’t have the depth to get out of an off-night for their top scorers. 

Dark Horses:

BYU

This is the obvious choice for many as a dark horse this March. A month ago, BYU was on the bubble after losses to Providence and Ole Miss in non-conference play and struggles in four of six to open Big 12 play. Then, a switch clicked. Kevin Young’s squad finally came together under his quickfire system, playing at a high pace and scoring loads of points. The Cougars pulled off statement wins over Baylor, Kansas, and Arizona along with sweeps of West Virginia and Iowa State. They score eighty-one points per game, shooting forty-eight percent from the field and thirty-seven percent from three. The Cougars are deep, as only one player averages more than sixteen points and they have ten averaging more than ten minutes per game. Turnovers are typically a problem, but BYU will definitely be hard to beat. The stacked bottom of the region will test their credentials for later in the tournament should they get there. 

Saint Mary’s

Should they get past a loaded SEC-tested Vanderbilt squad in the first round, Saint Mary’s will be a team to avoid throughout the East region. The Gaels swept WCC champion Gonzaga in the regular season and beat Utah, Nebraska, and USC. They are known for their extremely slow-paced play, allowing them to trap higher-caliber offenses and create a favorable situation. The WCC regular season stars will have to continue to rely on their stellar defense, as they are a low-quality shooting team. However, the Gaels are able to ensure they obtain possession, led by forty rebounds, six steals, and only nine turnovers per game. They’re led by back-to-back WCC player of the year Augustas Marciulionis, who averages fourteen points over only thirty-four minutes. If Saint Mary’s can ensure they hold their opponents to a low total and shoot a bit better than they did during the regular season, this team can beat anyone in the field. Don’t be surprised if you see the Gaels edge out Alabama to reach the Sweet 16 and beyond. 

Cinderellas:

VCU

This is definitely the obvious pick in the region. The only thing stopping the Rams from a deep run is likely their first round opponent, BYU, who is one of the best teams in the country in the last month. VCU played a good enough season to earn an at-large bid, though they didn’t need it as they swept aside George Mason for the second time to win the A-10 tournament. They also defeated Dayton and Saint Joseph’s, two rivals for the A-10 regular season title, which they shared with George Mason. VCU lost to Mountain West foes New Mexico and Nevada, but don’t have severe losses to anyone all season. The Rams are an extremely experienced squad, starting four seniors who have been in the dance before. VCU grabs thirty-seven rebounds a game, including thirty-seven percent of their own misses. They are in the middle of the pack in terms of three-point shooting percentage, but take chances quite often and are streaky from behind the arc. Almost their entire lineup averages over ten minutes per game, and the Rams are one of the most efficient teams in the entire nation at forcing turnovers and misses. If VCU can get past BYU, watch out, because they will out-rebound and out-shoot you if you blink. 

Akron

I had to further define cinderella for this one. My options were Liberty and Akron, the former of which I believe will beat Oregon but go no further, and the latter of which I think can make a run if they dispose of Arizona. So I went with Akron, who I believe can make a cinderella run if they can get past the Big 12 runner-ups. It’s very difficult to find weaknesses in the way the MAC champions play, as they pile up points with three-pointers but also maintain a presence in the paint on both ends of the floor. Despite being far more undersized than last year (in fact the smallest in the field), Akron still averages thirty-nine boards and puts up threes on second chance shots. The Zips play with a fast tempo, hoping to disrupt their opponents and score on the fast break. However, their resume shows that the metrics may not say it all. Akron destroyed MAC opponents, including sweeps of Kent State and Miami (OH), but lost to both Ivy League squads, including a blow-out in New Haven. Against other notable schools, the Zips put up a fight before succumbing to a five-point loss against Arkansas State and were beaten thoroughly by Saint Mary’s. If Akron wants to stun Arizona and teams further down the road, they need to sink their shots and ensure the game is played with their preferred quick tempo.

Missing that spark:

Wisconsin

Oregon

Mississippi State

Baylor

Vanderbilt

Straight to Cancun:

Liberty

Montana

Robert Morris

American

Mount Saint Mary’s

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Region Favorites:

Houston

The Cougars have been one of the most consistent teams in the nation for most of the season, anchored by an elite squad on both sides of the court. Houston’s most notable asset is its defense, Joseph Tugler and J’Wan Roberts, both of whom average over five rebounds. The Big 12 champions also steal the ball eight times and block it five, contributing to their second-least points allowed per game at fifty-eight. They can also match any team’s offensive firepower, shooting forty percent from three and claiming four players with over ten points. Their resume is no less impressive than their metrics, with sweeps of Kansas and Arizona, wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech, and every loss but one being in overtime. They played Alabama and Auburn close in the beginning of the season when they were playing their worst and will be a force to be reckoned with for any team that comes across them in the tournament.

Tennessee

I bet you didn’t know this squad has never been to the Final Four. Tennessee is definitely playing like they are ready to break that streak. The Volunteers began the season on a roll before slowing down in SEC play, but have the weapons to get going again. They just reached the championship game of the toughest conference tournament of all time, hold wins over Auburn, Alabama, and Florida, and can play offensive or defensive. The Volunteers have scored everywhere from fifty-five to eighty-five in wins this year, led by star guards Chaz Lanier and Zakai Ziegler. They have multiple players that are close to seven feet tall, allowing them to properly defend the paint and help the Volunteers have more shot opportunities. Tennessee has ten players who are on the court for ten or more minutes and many of their stars shoot around or above forty percent from the three-point line. The Vols will likely have to deal with Kentucky, a team who they were swept by, and a Houston team with lockdown defense if they want to make program history, but they look very poised to do so. 

Kentucky

The Wildcats are puzzling to say the least. Every year we come into the tournament believing they will make a run, and every year something goes terribly wrong. Three years ago, it was Saint Peter’s, two it was Kansas State, and last year it was Oakland. In fact, they haven’t made it past the first weekend since pre-COVID. Nothing really feels any different about this Kentucky team. They use a high-powered offense to suffocate opponents before they can respond, averaging eighty-five points per game. They shoot both the three- and two-ball well, grab plenty of offensive rebounds, and really only lose to teams that can outscore them. They swept Tennessee, beat Duke, and edged out Gonzaga, but lost all four of their meetings against Alabama (three losses) and Auburn (one). The question is really of which Kentucky will show up. If we get the good old Wildcats, they could be gone in the first round against a lousy Troy. If they are truly different than their predecessors and get rid of their demons, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were in San Antonio. 

Dark Horses:

Clemson

I’m not sure if you can exactly categorize the Tigers as a dark horse, but with their recent drop-off I think it makes sense. Many are pegging Clemson as a Sweet 16 squad, but they may get past Houston or Gonzaga, Kentucky, or Tennessee. They are a strong three-point shooting team, with a thirty-seven percent make rate which is even higher when only considering their top contributors. Seasoned veterans Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin have been an excellent one-two punch for Clemson, combining for almost thirty points per game. Hunter is a sharpshooting guard, hitting threes at an alarming rate and almost always making free throws. Schieffelin is more of a paint-oriented guard, still shooting the three ball well but focusing more on rebounds and creating second chances. The squad is experienced and went to the Elite Eight a year ago, so they’ll obviously be hungry to return, no matter who is in their way. Ignoring the shock loss to Louisville, Clemson has beaten Pittsburgh, SMU, and NCAA Tournament teams North Carolina, Kentucky, and most impressively were the only team to take down Duke in the ACC. 

Gonzaga

Again, not sure if the WCC tournament champions should be categorized as a dark horse, but their seeding reflects the committee’s views on how likely they are to make a run. Gonzaga is notably seen highly in the eyes of predictive metrics, including KenPom. The Bulldogs have had a turbulent but ultimately successful season, highlighted by wins over Baylor, Indiana, and most recently Saint Mary’s. However, they have lost to Kentucky, Connecticut, and lost both regular season matchups with their WCC rivals. The Zags rarely turn over the ball and have one of the best turnover margins in the country, almost covering all of their own turnovers with steals. They shoot exactly fifty percent, which highlights their interior men Graham Ike and Braden Huff who ensure the squad is able to reach their opponent’s basket and shoot as many times as possible. Gonzaga has a tough road back to the Sweet 16, which they have reached nine straight times, encountering Georgia and Houston.

Cinderellas:

Xavier*

The Musketeers have been hot enough in recent Big East play to show signs of potential, though they first must battle through Texas to officially get a chance to dance. After a disastrous start to the season including a blowout against Michigan and close losses to Cincinnati, TCU, Connecticut, Marquette, and Georgetown, Xavier began to build their case for inclusion in March Madness. In January, the Musketeers took down Marquette and Connecticut, and they did not lose once between January 29 (at Creighton by 9) and March 13 (Marquette by 2) in the Big East Tournament. Xavier is a very strong shooting team, with a thirty-nine percent mark from three and a forty-seven percent mark from the field. They can match many of the squads in the dance in terms of height, which will allow them to continue to grab the large amount of boards they were able to in the regular season. If Xavier can get past Texas, they have a favorable matchup with Illinois and an inconsistent Kentucky. I see a way for a hot Xavier to reach the Sweet 16, and I believe that if they continue to shoot well, they will live up to that potential.

*Texas is my replacement if they defeat Xavier on Wednesday night

Troy

Trust me, there isn’t anything that’s too interesting about this Troy team. They shouldn’t have won their conference, that’s it. However, the selection committee may have done the Sun Belt champion some favors on Sunday night. The Trojans were matched up with Kentucky in the first round and possibly Illinois in the second round. Kentucky is inconsistent and has proven that they are unpredictable in March, while Illinois is streaky and we have absolutely no idea which version we will see in the tournament. If both Kentucky and Illinois lose in the first round, it would be Xavier or Texas in the second round, either of whom would honestly be the surest bet to knock out Troy before the Sweet 16. So despite having no shooting, scoring only seventy points per game, and only boasting impressive wins in conference play, the Troy Trojans may end up being one of your cinderellas.

Missing that spark:

Purdue

Illinois

UCLA

Georgia

Utah State

Straight to Cancun:

McNeese State

High Point

Wofford

Southern Illinois-Edwardsville

West (San Francisco)

Region Favorites:

Florida

The Gators are primed for a run, though they will have to defeat some of the top opposition in the country to get anywhere. The hottest team in the country over the past couple of months will likely have to deal with Connecticut, Maryland, and St. John’s or Texas Tech JUST to get to San Antonio. Florida’s defense is surprisingly deceptive, with eyes generally being drawn to scorelines such as the 106-100 loss to Kentucky, 99-94 win over Alabama, and 90-84 win over North Carolina, in which the Gators gave up plenty of points. However, they play in the SEC, in which this season almost every team in the league had a high-caliber offense capable of wreaking havoc on any given day. Florida is anchored by Alijah Martin and Alex Condon, both of whom are defensive powerhouses, and four main offensive contributors. However, they have plenty of depth as ten players earn significant minutes. The Gators are one of if not the top rebounding schools in the bracket, averaging forty-two rebounds per game and allowing their sharpshooters plenty of opportunities to hit threes. While their shooting stats may not be as impressive, don’t be fooled, this team might be the favorite to cut down the nets in April. 

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders boast one of the nation’s top shooting and rebounding teams, with JT Toppin leading the way. In general, Texas Tech has an above average offense which shoots thirty-seven percent from the three and forty-seven percent from the field. However, the Red Raiders are able to grab plenty of second chance opportunities due to the presences of the aforementioned Toppin and Federiko Federiko, both of whom are almost seven feet tall. The team holds a deep rotation, with ten players earning significant game time and all but one of them hitting at least thirty-two percent of their threes and all but two shooting forty-two percent in total. Texas Tech holds big wins over Baylor, Kansas, Arizona, and Houston, although they lost to Iowa State along with Houston and Arizona (twice). The Red Raiders are a team to avoid throughout the tournament, though it is up in the air whether they can survive such an insane region.

Maryland

Everyone is sleeping on the Terrapins. Maryland has been one of the most underrated squads in the nation throughout the year and have a dynamic defense. They are led by bigs Julian Reese and Derek Queen, both of whom take in nine rebounds per game. They also have a high-powered offense led by guards Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Rodney Rice, who combine for over twenty-eight points per game and shoot threes at a high percentage. The Terps have what it takes not only to stop lower-paced teams like Michigan State but also high-powered teams like Illinois and Purdue. Their resume isn’t quite as strong as they are, with a sweep of Illinois, win against Wisconsin, and buzzer beater half-court loss to Michigan State. While you and I likely don’t have faith in Maryland to go far, especially with the region they have to deal with, if they can manage to get Florida out of the way, I could see their ceiling being the national title game. 

Have the spark but must play amazing:*

St. John’s

Memphis

Missouri

*This region is so stacked I had to add another category because these teams don’t make sense in the Missing that Spark category

Dark Horses:

Connecticut

Obviously, I don’t love this UConn team as much as I liked the past two. That makes sense, they are an eight seed after all. The two-time defending national champions don’t seem like they are as hungry for the third after another grueling season. We’ll truly see how ready the Huskies are when they take the court on Friday against Oklahoma in the first round. The middle of the season was amazing for Connecticut, but the beginning and finish line were a mess. They began with a last-place finish in Maui, including losses to Memphis, Dayton, and Colorado (well those aged well). The Huskies turned things around, bouncing back with wins over Texas, Baylor, and Gonzaga before winning eight of their first eleven in Big East play. They then proceeded to lose to St. John’s twice, Creighton in the Big East tournament, and SETON HALL. Yes, they’ve had their good moments but the team doesn’t seem to put in quite enough effort playing defense, showing significant regression from last year. This isn’t a data analysis, this is a resume analysis, and the conclusion is that we have absolutely no idea which version of the Huskies will show up for March this year. 

Arkansas

John Calipari is hated by Kentucky fans for his performances in March since the pandemic, but this is a different team. The Razorbacks seem to have been overlooked by many making brackets, but they have a different brand than Calipari’s Kentucky teams of the earlier 2020s. DJ Wagner has taken over well for Boogie Fland at point guard, but the two will likely share a role as the latter finally returns for Arkansas in their March Madness start against Kansas. However, Fland is the only one returning for a team that literally only fielded six players in the close second round loss to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament. I expect the Razorbacks to defeat Bill Self’s Kansas but depending on how St. John’s plays, Calipari’s squad may have no chance. The team gets into foul trouble often, which has become increasingly more of a problem as the squad has picked up injuries. The Razorbacks also turn the ball over quite a bit but also steal from and block their opponents plenty. This team could be out in the first round after a disaster but their ceiling is likely the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 if they can get their acts together. 

Cinderellas:

Colorado State

This seemed obvious, though I’m not really sure you can call a team that’s a favorite in their first round game a cinderella. I’m going to though; they are a twelve seed. Colorado State was a pretty underwhelming team all year. The Rams’ resume is pretty much just late wins in the Mountain West conference, including their tournament run, but we’ve learned plenty of times that a team needs to just get hot at the right time, and Colorado State has checked that box. They have a nine-man rotation led by Nique Clifford, who averaged twenty-five points in the Mountain West tournament and nineteen over the course of the season. The Rams are an above-average shooting team, with a thirty-seven percent mark for their stars from beyond the arc and forty-eight percent of all shots finding the net. This will certainly be a team to watch, as they have grinded out some excellent wins lately, including a season series win over Utah State and sweep of Boise State.

Grand Canyon

361 days ago, Grand Canyon joined Yale by stunning Saint Mary’s in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Two days later, they came just a few points short of defeating eventual Final Four squad Alabama. This Antelopes squad is almost the same but more experienced, as they returned many of their stars from last year’s time in the spotlight. Grand Canyon didn’t play as well this year, but was able to grind out wins over Stanford, Saint Louis, and Utah Valley, along with a notable season sweep of Seattle. They’re not exactly known for their defense, but they hold a size advantage over many teams in the field and can ensure their opponent doesn’t get second chances. I don’t think they have a great chance as they are taking on one of my favorite teams in the entire tournament, Maryland, who are not undersized, but we thought the same thing about the Antelopes last year.

Missing that spark:

Kansas

Oklahoma

Straight to Cancun:

North Carolina-Wilmington

Omaha

Norfolk State

Predictions in Full:

South

16 SFPA 71, 16 ALST 64

11 North Carolina 74, 11 San Diego State 66

1 Auburn 88, 16 SFPA 54

9 Creighton 75, 8 Louisville 71

5 Michigan 67, 12 UCSD 61

13 Yale 85, 4 Texas A&M 83

6 Ole Miss 78, 11 North Carolina 72

3 Iowa State 95, 14 Lipscomb 69

10 New Mexico 75, 7 Marquette 70

2 Michigan State 72, 15 Bryant 49

1 Auburn 86, 9 Creighton 75

5 Michigan 79, 13 Yale 66

3 Iowa State 85, 6 Ole Miss 79

10 New Mexico 69, 2 Michigan State 65

1 Auburn 82, 5 Michigan 80

3 Iowa State 80, 10 New Mexico 70

3 Iowa State 78, 1 Auburn 77

East

16 MSM 64, 16 American 60

1 Duke 78, 16 MSM 60

8 MSST 94, 9 Baylor 87

12 Liberty 72, 5 Oregon 67

4 Arizona 92, 13 Akron 81

6 BYU 76, 11 VCU 73

3 Wisconsin 66, 14 Montana 55

7 St. Mary’s 78, 10 Vanderbilt 77

2 Alabama 106, 15 Robert Morris 73

1 Duke 93, 8 MSST 85

4 Arizona 85, 12 Liberty 66

6 BYU 88, 3 Wisconsin 74

2 Alabama 73, 7 St. Mary’s 70

1 Duke 72, 4 Arizona 64

6 BYU 93, 2 Alabama 90

1 Duke 82, 6 BYU 73

Midwest

11 Xavier 71, 11 Texas 67

1 Houston 68, 16 SIUE 43

8 Gonzaga 76, 9 Georgia 66

5 Clemson 77, 12 McNeese 59

4 Purdue 85, 13 High Point 78

11 Xavier 79, 6 Illinois 65

3 Kentucky 73, 14 Troy 65

7 UCLA 69, 10 Utah State 64

2 Tennessee 73, 15 Wofford 46

1 Houston 83, 8 Gonzaga 74

4 Purdue 93, 5 Clemson 80

11 Xavier 79, 3 Kentucky 78

2 Tennessee 71, 7 UCLA 60

1 Houston 80, 4 Purdue 67

2 Tennessee 82, 11 Xavier 68

1 Houston 67, 2 Tennessee 63

West

1 Florida 108, 16 Norfolk State 56

8 Connecticut 78, 9 Oklahoma 76

12 Colorado State 84, 5 Memphis 78

4 Maryland 70, 13 Grand Canyon 57

6 Missouri 88, 11 Drake 74

3 Texas Tech 84, 14 UNC Wilmington 69

10 Arkansas 91, 7 Kansas 89

2 St. John’s 68, 15 Omaha 52

1 Florida 90, 8 Connecticut 71

4 Maryland 77, 12 Colorado State 76

6 Missouri 89, 3 Texas Tech 83

2 St. John’s 75, 10 Arkansas 58

4 Maryland 65, 1 Florida 60

2 St. John’s 80, 6 Missouri 70

4 Maryland 73, 2 St. John’s 66

Final Four

4 Maryland 84, 3 Iowa State 73

1 Houston 86, 1 Duke 84

National Championship

1 Houston 75, 4 Maryland 63

UEFA Champions League Draw Reaction: Madrid Magic, Bayern or Barce, Dutch Decimation

The UEFA knockout stage draws have just been made, so let’s take a deeper dive into the Champions League, paths and pick out the biggest storylines from each side, along with an overall trend. The Champions League playoff round produced utter chaos, but most of the top clubs still remain with only a few favorites out of the competition. Now, without further ado, here are the two biggest talking points from the draw, one for each side, and the trend behind one of the biggest disasters for a single domestic league in recent memory…

Silver Side - Derby Madrileño to produce Finalist?

By far, the tastiest tie on the Silver side of the draw is Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid. Usually, these two squads play intense, physical, fiery matches. This season, both fixtures have resulted in 1-1 results, but a year ago Atletico knocked Real out of the Copa del Rey, and Real has typically had the upper hand in European competitions. This season, Atletico are truly challenging Real’s title defence, and both have led La Liga for long stretches. Atletico have been on quite a run of form in the past month, and Real have seen an exponential uptick in quality of play since starting the season slowly. This has the formula to produce high-quality, entertaining football that may have the power to determine the champion of both the Champions League and La Liga. Meanwhile, Liverpool are likely to await in the semifinals so long as they can sneak past PSG and Villa or Brugge. The Reds have been by far the best team over the course of the season across Europe, but are beginning to slow down after a thunderous start under Arne Slot. They recently drew with Villa and Everton, lost to PSV and Tottenham, and tumbled out of the FA Cup to Plymouth Argyle. If one of the Madrid sides shows up to Anfield, we may have at least one Spanish side left in the competition in June.

Blue Side - 8-2! Will Messi’s biggest embarrassment be avenged?

It is looking increasingly likely that we will be gifted with yet another rematch between Bayern and Barce, with the latter taking all three points at home in October with a resounding 4-1 victory. Bayern, however, still have the mental advantage over Barcelona, with the Blaugrana not having defeated the Munich side in the knockouts since the 8-2 embarrassment in 2020. Messi is long gone, but Barcelona have begun to turn a corner after a disappointing 2023-24, largely helped by the presence of 17-year-old Spanish star Lamine Yamal. He has scored eleven and assisted fifteen despite missing a decent portion of the season, contributing to the uptick in form. Bayern still must hold off challengers Leverkusen in both the Bundesliga and Champions League but have not lost a domestic tie in over two months (Dec. 16 vs Mainz). Both teams should be confident and favored in their quarterfinal ties if they are to get there (although Inter is a tough test for Bayern), so expect a Barcelona vs Bayern Munich rematch. If Bayern win, we may see a rematch of last year’s Champions League semifinal, and if Barcelona win, we may see either the showdown between the top two teams in the League Phase or an all-La Liga affair.

Serie A or Serie 1? Dutch diminish Italian hopes

The playoff round was a disaster, and I mean a DISASTER, for the Italians and Serie A. Despite losing Bologna in the League Phase, the Serie A was still very much in the race for five spots in next year’s elite European club competition and had many clubs still in contention for the Champions League title. Then, everything went wrong. First, reigning Europa League champions and Serie A title contenders lost both legs of their tie to Belgian champions Club Brugge. Then, AC Milan were reduced to ten men before allowing an equalizer to Feyenoord that knocked them out of the Champions League. Finally, Juventus, who went into Eindhoven with a 2-1 lead, allowed two second-half goals and an extra time winner to succumb to PSV. Atalanta haven’t looked themselves since their draw with Barcelona in Matchday 8, partially due to Ademola Lookman’s slump. AC Milan have turned their fortunes domestically but had two red cards in three matches prior to crashing out of the competition. Juventus came into Europe with high expectations courtesy of an unbeaten record in the Serie A before losing two of their next four games not in the domestic league, coupled with a disappointing 0-0 draw with Brugge on Matchday 8. These misfortunes can be explained, but the fact that they all happened simultaneously is extremely interesting. All of the clubs had been very successful in the Serie A, in which Lazio, Inter, Roma, and Fiorentina, all still in their respective UEFA competition, reside. Inter will hope to carry the Serie A as the last remaining Champions League side, though a run isn’t out of the question for the finalists twice removed.

Half-way ACC Power Rankings

We’re about halfway through conference play in the 2024-25 men’s college basketball, season, so it’s time to rank the eighteen members of the Atlantic Coast Conference. The conference has been extremely weak this year, with only one member ranked in the AP Poll and two in the top 25 of ESPN’s BPI ratings. I’m going to separate these rankings into four tiers, as I believe there are four distinct categories of ACC squads. Without further ado, here are your ACC squads ranked from worst to first…

They’re, uh…rebuilding

18: Miami Hurricanes

How did this happen? In March 2023, the Miami Hurricanes had just beaten #2 Texas (fifth in the country) in the Elite Eight to reach the Final Four, yes the Final Four, of the NCAA Tournament. That offseason, they lost their two best players to the NBA Draft, and their offense suffered. They started 2023-24 with an 11-2 record before stumbling to 14th in the ACC and bowing out to Boston College in the first round of the conference tournament. This season, Miami lost their longtime coach Jim Larrañga, went 4-7 with a weak non-conference schedule, and are 1-10 in ACC Play, earning their first win over Notre Dame this past weekend. Miami look far from their March Madness run and have a good chance of being the first team to miss the ACC tournament in history by the end of February. 

17: Boston College Eagles

Boston College also pulled out a must-needed win this past weekend as they beat Florida State at the buzzer. However, it hasn’t been easy this season. The Eagles haven’t finished high enough to earn a bye past the first round of the ACC Tournament since the league expanded in 2013, and don’t look to be making much progress towards finishing above tenth. They sit at 2-8 in conference play, and other than their win at home this past weekend, their only victory was a huge comeback against last-placed Miami in Chestnut Hill. Expect to see the Eagles here for a while.

16: Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia is a similar story to Miami. How did this happen? Virginia was the number one seed in the ACC Tournament only two years ago, won the national championship six years ago, and are now at the gutter of the ACC. Virginia have only beaten NCST, Boston College, and Miami, the three teams with a worse record in conference play, and are 3-8 despite the only top team they have played is Louisville. Virginia would be 15th, but they play Pitt, Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, and Clemson before the end of the season. I wouldn’t expect them to be playing in Charlotte with that gauntlet.

15: North Carolina State Wolfpack

Another ACC team that shouldn’t be here. NCST wasn’t anything special last year, finishing tenth in the regular season. However, their cinderella run through the ACC Tournament and to the Final Four gave just a little bit of hope for a non-dismal season. Instead, the Wolfpack have been worse. They’re 2-8 in conference play and have lost six in a row. If you’re looking for another surprise package from the ACC, find somebody else.

14: Syracuse Orange

Syracuse looked far better earlier in the season, with close losses to Texas, Texas Tech, and Georgetown. Since beginning conference play, the Orange have lost to Florida State by 16 and Stanford by 9. Good news: most of the difficult opponents have already been played, with only Duke, UNC, and another showdown with Pitt remaining from the top of the conference. They should rise soon.

13: Florida State Seminoles

It’s been a bad couple of weeks for the Seminoles. Since a quality win over Georgia Tech, Florida State was swept on their trip to the West before an ugly loss to Virginia Tech and a heartbreaker in Chestnut Hill. The schedule doesn’t get much easier, with Duke, Louisville, UNC, Clemson, and Wake Forest still remaining. Florida State should make the ACC Tournament and they’ll definitely try to make a quarterfinal run, but may be exhausted from the conference schedule leading up to March.

Stumbling to the ACC Tourney

12: California Golden Bears

From looking through the ACC teams’ results so far, it is clear that the top twelve are far better than the bottom six. It is very hard to rank the teams that I have between ninth and twelfth. Cal has had much more of a home-court advantage than in the past, but that also comes with a deficit on the road. Teams have typically traveled to Stanford first before making the trek up to Berkeley, and the Golden Bears have capitalized, winning three conference games at home. However, Cal hasn’t played well against the top teams in the conference and still have dates against Wake Forest, Duke, and Louisville. 

11: Virginia Tech Hokies

The Hokies are ninth in the conference and 5-6 but are in worse shape than the two teams directly above them. VTech won in Tallahassee and Charlottesville this past week to improve their conference record, but almost blew their lead against Virginia. Their other three conference wins were also lackluster and against teams below them. They have also been blown out by the majority of top conference opponents they have played. The next three weeks will be a big opportunity for Virginia Tech to secure a safe record before potential season-defining clashes against Louisville, UNC, and Clemson to finish conference play.

10: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Fighting Irish have been solid over the course of the season, posting strong wins against Syracuse and Boston College and a close loss to Duke. However, the loss to Miami this past weekend was disastrous, as Notre Dame blew an 11-point halftime lead to surrender the Hurricanes’ first conference victory of the season. Notre Dame have four chances to improve their resume in February in the hopes of better seeding in the ACC Tournament. Hopefully the Miami loss was a one-off for the Fighting Irish.

9: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech have themselves in the top half of the conference for the time being after a huge win over Louisville in Atlanta this past weekend. It was their first AP Poll win this year and solidified that the Yellow Jackets are one of the league’s top home-court teams. However, Georgia Tech will have to step it up on the road, as they have visits to struggling Boston College and Virginia over the next few weeks and a chance to secure a bye in the ACC Tournament.

Blink and your Bid’s Stolen

8: Pittsburgh Panthers

Welcome to the true contender list of the ACC, as the top eight teams have firmly separated themselves from the rest of the pack. Pitt were able to take down UNC at home a few weeks ago but are still searching for a high-quality win. UNC hasn’t been playing as well as they have in past seasons, and the Panthers have squandered big chances against Louisville, Clemson, and Wake Forest. They don’t have many left, and likely need to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill and take out Louisville in Kentucky to be in the bubble conversation.

7: North Carolina Tar Heels

As a Duke fan, all I can say is WOW! North Carolina lack a lot of the size that helped them to a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament last year and sit at a measly 6-5 in conference play. They began ACC play strong (4-1) but are missing the same thing as Pittsburgh, a high-quality win. The Tar Heels lost to Louisville, Pitt, Wake Forest, and of course Duke, and need to start winning more games. They host Pitt before traveling to Clemson and in March host Duke in what could be the biggest game of the season for UNC.

6: Southern Methodist Mustangs

SMU really haven’t played many strong teams in the ACC. Yes, they’ve absolutely demolished some of the weaker teams in the conference, such as scoring 117 points against Miami or 103 against Boston College, but they also couldn’t compete with Duke, UNC, or Louisville. They have some great chances to redeem themselves and prove their record is no fluke against Pitt, Wake Forest, and Clemson, but also must be careful to not lose any games they aren’t supposed to.

5: Stanford Cardinal

Stanford have had a nice introduction to the ACC in men’s basketball. They sit at 7-4 and have really benefited from hosting teams from the East still adjusting to the new time zone. Stanford are 6-0 against ACC opponents in California but 1-4 elsewhere. They also haven’t proven their record is secure as they have lost to Wake Forest, Pitt, and Clemson with only a win against North Carolina. They host Wake and SMU and will hope to cause upsets in those challenges, and must improve their away form if they hope to stand a chance against Louisville and Duke when they travel to the East.

Putting the Madness in March

4: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The top four teams in this list are all super strong compared to the rest of the conference, and the teams ranked from second to fourth are almost inseparable at the moment. Wake have notched wins against almost every team in the conference except against the teams above them: Louisville, Clemson, and Duke. They had an excellent performance in Cameron against the Blue Devils and their largest conference loss of the season was in Louisville by thirteen. The Demon Deacons look as though they belong at the top of the conference and should be entertaining to watch when they host Duke in early March. They’ll be heavily favored in every game until then so it is a big chance to notch a huge win.

3: Louisville Cardinals

What an improvement from the Cardinals! Just last March, Louisville were dominated in the first round of the ACC Tournament, ending the season 8-24 (3-17) as the worst team in the conference. They came close against Kentucky and Oklahoma but beat Indiana and giant-topplers West Virginia in non-con play. Since then, they fought to a close loss against Duke, beat Wake Forest, Pitt, and Clemson, and dominated the conference. It is likely their ugly loss in Atlanta was just a fluke, but it is something to monitor over the next month. Quite the improvement though! It’ll be interesting to see how they handle the ACC Tournament after a relatively quiet end to the conference schedule.

2: Clemson Tigers:

This team is different from the two before it. Clemson have March Madness experience, as they almost reached the Final Four last year and established themselves as a strong basketball program. This year, the Tigers are the only team in the conference that can come close to matching Duke’s non-conference resume, as they notched impressive victories over San Francisco, Penn. State, and of course Kentucky, along with two close losses to Memphis and South Carolina. Their only conference loss was in Louisville and the only time they have really looked troubled in conference play was in their overtime victory over Pitt. Their remaining schedule isn’t super troubling, but they are the only top ACC team that hasn’t played Duke and still have to make sure to put North Carolina away at home.

National Championship back in the ACC?

1: Duke Blue Devils

While the ACC hasn’t been itself over the past few years as other conferences have dominated, Duke has been a constant for the conference this season. They have been the only consistent AP Poll squad and haven’t left the top ten all season. The Blue Devils have recovered from close losses to Kansas and Kentucky early in the season and have definitely matured. We’ll see if Duke enters the NCAA Tournament tested enough to make a run since the ACC is so weak this year. They appear to be unstoppable in conference play and their battles with Clemson, Wake Forest, and UNC will be good chances to show they are ready for March (they also play Illinois at MSG in late February). Being the only team to take out the top team nationally doesn’t hurt their standing.