- Beckett Ehrlich
- 17 min read
Note: The article is quite long so I would recommend picking and choosing what you read based on which teams and matchups interest you. Full predictions are at the end.
Welcome to the First Four! The best time of the year is finally here. We made it through another season of college basketball. Now only sixty-seven incredible forty-minute thrillers stand between us and the crowning of a national champion. The question now is who? Who will storm the courts in the first round after making program history? Who will be the dark horse? Who are our cinderellas? Who will be in Indianapolis? And who will cut down the nets? These are the questions that millions of passionate and knowledgeable fans try and fail to answer every single year. And to help you better understand the bracket, let’s break down who to watch and stay away from, who is underseeded, which teams should be here and which should not, and which are in the most elite tier truly contending for the title. Let’s break it down by region, creating a tier list, identifying the most fascinating squads, and forecasting the madness of March.
First let’s define some things. The region favorites are, well, the region favorites. These are the teams that you and everyone else are likely picking to head to Indy and represent their region. These are the teams who have performed well all season, have the chemistry, and don’t have too many glaring weaknesses. Then there are the dark horses, who are likely underseeded, can go on a hot streak, and about whose potential we do not know. After this is the cinderellas, the mid- to low- =majors who have a secret weapon that can enable them to go on a run to the Sweet 16 or farther. The fourth section is the other top programs, the teams that aren’t as notable but in my opinion don’t have the special spark to reach the Final Four. And lastly is the teams that are happy to be here, the teams who realistically have no chance to win their first game, and definitely can’t reach the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. I won’t write a section about every team, only the ones who are notable and who I think will be relevant to your bracket-making, but I will still categorize them. Without further ado, your number one overall seed…
East (Washington D.C.)
Region Favorites:
Duke
I had my hesitations about Duke, but the last month since their loss to North Carolina has convinced me otherwise. If center Patrick Ngongba and point guard Caleb Foster can both return, Duke can make a strong case for being the deepest team in the field...in addition to having the National Player of the Year in Cameron Boozer. Duke is rightfully first in NET, with seventeen quad one wins and a 15-0 record outside of quad one. The Blue Devils won't have it easy, with Ohio State or TCU waiting in the second round and St. John's or Kansas in the Sweet 16, but they have proved that they have enough depth to win games even when injured or when Boozer isn't putting up 23 points and 10 rebounds.
Connecticut
UConn has had some significant problems down the stretch, losing to Creighton and Marquette before being blown out for a second time in three matchups against St. John's in the Big East championship game. The NET doesn't love the Huskies, and neither do I, but that's partially due to the recent quad two and quad three losses that they recently added to their resume. Connecticut leaves a lot on the table offensively, but they have the eleventh best defense in the country and their entire starting lineup still averages double-digit points.
Michigan State
Michigan State once again finds itself as a de-facto favorite in their region. It may occur year-over-year because of Tom Izzo, or it may be because MSU continues to piece together a clutch and deep lineup. Despite his temper, the Spartans' point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. is one of the best players in the country and is also excellent at feeding his teammates the rock, evidenced by his over nine assists per game. Michigan State has one bad loss on their resume, to Minnesota, but the rest of the losses are all to teams seeded seven or better in March Madness and hold wins over Arkansas, Illinois, and Purdue.
Dark Horses:
UCLA
I wouldn't consider any of the teams seeded under five in this region to have any sort of dark horse credentials, and Louisville is a mess, so we begin with a team I believe to be drastically underrated, UCLA. The Bruins aren't loved by metrics, and that's their own fault after quad two losses to Indiana, Minnesota, and California, but they hold wins over four top ten teams. UCLA doesn't look amazing on paper, but they clearly got hot at just the right time, evidenced by their Big Ten tournament run, and should Donovan Dent (yes, him again) be healthy enough to play, the Bruins are a ginormous threat. It won't be easy with a matchup against UCF before taking on UConn, but if Dent can get healthy, UCLA can hang with anyone in their half of the region.
Ohio State
All four of the teams seeded seven to ten in this region are the strongest on their seed line, so it's extremely hard to choose who to put as the dark horses. However, I do think that Ohio State is a much more complete team than TCU and UCF. The Buckeyes have won almost all of their quad one games in the past month, including wins over UCLA, Purdue, Wisconsin, and in the Big Ten tournament, Iowa. Their eleven quad one losses would indicate that they have no chance against top teams, but there was something about the way they played against Michigan last week that convinced me they are a significant threat. If guards Thornton and Mobley Jr. can get hot, Ohio State can give Duke a run for their money.
Cinderellas:
South Florida
This region does not seem as though it will be kind to cinderella, and she may not find any footing for her slipper. However, South Florida is one of the best mid-majors in the nation at the moment and has a perfect matchup with Louisville. The Bulls have sneakily climbed the NET rankings and now sit at 45th in the nation. All five of their starters average at least ten points. They haven't had many chances to show off their star-power but do sport victories over tournament team Utah State and fellow top-tier American conference rival Tulsa on the road.
California Baptist
Do I think Cal Baptist can be a Sweet 16 squad? No. Do I think they could beat a power five team ten times out of one hundred? No. Do I think they could beat Kansas on any given night? Yes. The Lancers shouldn't be here (check out the ending of the WAC final if you haven't), but they are, and they take on the Jayhawks first. Cal Baptist has two quad two wins, against UC Irvine and Utah Valley in the WAC final. But I think they have cinderella potential more because of their opponent than because of their own stats. Cal Baptist has been remarkably consistent: they're 18-0 in quad four games. Kansas is the most inconsistent team in the country: they have 20+ point wins over the best teams in the country, and a 20+ point loss to a team that missed the tournament. So, which Kansas will we get on Friday?
Missing that spark:
Kansas
St. John's
Louisville
Texas Christian
Central Florida
Straight to Cancun:
Northern Iowa
North Dakota St.
Furman
Siena
West (San Jose)
Region Favorites:
Arizona
There's a reason these Wildcats were the number one team in the entire country for the majority of the year: there truly are no glaring weaknesses. Since its two losses by a combined seven points to Kansas and Texas Tech, Arizona has been on a rampage, destroying UCF and holding off Iowa State and Houston to win the Big 12. Arizona is deservedly top-three in the NET, KenPom, and just about every other rating that accurately analyzes college basketball. It will take a monumental performance to knock out Arizona, a team with seven players scoring nine points per game or more. Look to Arizona's three point shot selection and accuracy to knock them out if they ever lose.
Purdue
The Boilermakers haven't been on my radar for long; I didn't believe in them at the start of the season, any time in the middle of the season, or even at the end of the regular season. But, I can see their status as at least contenders after a critical win in the Big Ten championship game against Michigan. It not only boosted Purdue back up to the two-seed line (with an arguably easier draw than their replacement Michigan State) but also allowed them a chance to show why they're underrated. Purdue has ten wins over quad one tournament teams, but bad losses to Iowa State, Indiana, and Ohio State prevent me and others from picking them to go all the way.
Arkansas
I am COMPLETELY invested in this Arkansas squad. I'm really not sure why. I didn't even think Calipari's Razorbacks were going to make it out of their first game last year, let alone the first weekend. But there was something about the end of the season and the SEC tournament run that put Arkansas square in the middle of my brain as a huge contender. The Razorbacks, backed by star freshman point guard Acuff, have multiple wins over Vanderbilt and knocked off Texas Tech on a neutral court and Tennessee earlier this season. As long as Acuff is healthy and averaging 23-7-3, Arkansas has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with anyone, and may be the only team capable of knocking out Arizona early.
Dark Horses:
Wisconsin
Speaking of extremely dangerous to Arizona during the second week, the Badgers have proven that they can beat every team in the country. They may not be loved by the metrics, and that's due to multiple losses outside of quad one, but Wisconsin has beaten UCLA, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State and twice Illinois. For a team barely in the top-25 of any metrics, that's quite the resume. And in March, your ceiling matters just as much as your floor. Lead by elite guard play by Boyd and Blackwell, Wisconsin must prepare itself for a tight high-scoring first round matchup with High Point, but should they get through, the Badgers can cause problems for Arkansas or Arizona.
Utah State
Other than the two losses to UNLV, the Aggies have very few blemishes on their resume. They only sport one win over teams in the field, but were very consisten in non-conference play, only losing to fellow tournament team South Florida. Despite siding down the seed line (they were projected to be a seven seed) and struggling at the tail end of the regular season, a strong Mountain West tournament run with a championship win over San Diego State reinforced expectations. They'll need to rely on their defense against Villanova, as they only have two players averaging over ten points per game. I expect their run to end against Arizona, but the top mid-major can surprise.
Cinderellas:
North Carolina State*
The Wolfpack have been quite cold, barely surviving ACC fodder Pittsburgh before being crushed by Virginia in the ACC tournament quarterfinals, but their form all year has been convincing enough. Quad one wins over North Carolina, Clemson, and Southern Methodist are highlights on a resume that otherwise includes four quad two losses and a horrible quad four loss to Georgia Tech. However, the reason the Wolfpack have been locked into the touranment for the entirety of the month thus far is their wins over bubble foes, and I expect them to at least take out similarly-cold Texas. Multiple wins in the tournament will be difficult with their BYU first-round draw, but this is NC State, and if you've watched college basketball for a couple of years, you'll know what that means.
*Texas is my replacement if they defeat NC State on Wednesday night
Hawaii
Hawaii has in my opinion the worst possible first-round draw: Arkansas. A team that could otherwise easily on a cinderella run has a near-impossible task ahead of it. The Rainbow Warriors haven't beaten a single team in the top two quads, but have been solid with a 14-6 record in-conference and a revenge win over UC Irvine in the Big West championship game. They were within ten points of both Oregon and Arizona State, and beat UC Irvine twice, so time will tell whether they can pick things up in their first quad one game of the season and pull off a huge shock.
Missing that spark:
Gonzaga
Bringham Young
Miami (FL)
Villanova
Missouri
Straight to Cancun:
Texas*
High Point
Kennesaw State
Queens
Long Island
Midwest (Indianapolis)
Region Favorites:
Michigan
These Wolverines have been one of the national title favorites since their dominant run through the Players' Era Championship in Vegas in November, and the three losses along the way have done little to dampen expectations. Michigan has a wild seventeen quad one wins and beat two of the three teams it lost to this season. A forty point win over Gonzaga, thirty point win over Auburn, and conference wins over Nebraska, UCLA, Wisconsin, Illinois and two wins over Michigan State highlight arguably the best resume in the country, and if Lendeborg is healthy, the Wolverines should find their way to Indianapolis with relative ease.
Iowa State
These Cyclones have had Final Four potential for years, but haven't even been able to get to a regional final. Could this be the year? They have a winning record in quad one, beat Kansas, Houston, Texas Tech, and Purdue while they were in the top ten, and hung on to Arizona in the Big 12 tournament only to lose on a Kawhi-like buzzer-beater. The Cyclones have to rely on Momcilovic, Jefferson, and Limpsey, but should have a size and paint advantage over everyone they encounter until Virginia. The big test would be in the Sweet 16 against the aforementioned Cavaliers, but if they stick to the game plan and move the ball well, Iowa State can match up with Michigan for a spot in Indianapolis.
Virginia
As a Duke fan, I regret to inform you that I believe Virginia has a chance to get to the final four...BUT, they could also crumble in the second round against Tennessee. This is the most complete group of Cavaliers since their national title run in 2019, and it shows. They reached the ACC tournament final with huge wins over NC State and Miami before falling just so short to the Blue Devils. Virginia has shot up the rankings and seed lines to land at a three seed, but have yet to prove they can beat top non-ACC opponents. That will be necessary in the cases of a second round showdown with Tennessee or a Sweet 16 matchup with Iowa State. If they play like they did in the loss to Butler, the Cavaliers don't stand a chance, but if they play like they did on Saturday and top shot blocker Onyenso is putting in his work, Virginia could find itself in Indy.
Dark Horses:
Tennessee
The Vols definitely fit the description of being a dark horse. They're severely looked over and underrated, and having to come back to beat Auburn before bowing out to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament won't help their case. Tennessee, like the Virginia team they will likely see in the second round, is volatile, and can win or lose any game any day. Tennessee's loss to Syracuse and multiple losses to Kentucky stick out like a sore thumb on its resume, but the Vols beat Vanderbilt in their regular season matchup, Alabama, and earned a massive win over Houston in non-con play. Gillespie and Ament may need to carry, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Vols make it deeper than expected.
Saint Louis
This is an extremely difficult and risky pick, but Saint Louis still seems as though it could make some sort of run. They are easily the worst pick in any 8-9 first round matchup, but their opponents Georgia are also cold and the Billikens are a mid-major, meaning we don't truly know their ceiling. Saint Louis is very deep, with seven players averaging over nine points, and holds crucial quad one wins on their resume over fellow mid-major tournament squads Santa Clara and VCU. The atrocious slide at the end of the year and the losses against Rhode Island, George Mason, and Dayton have the Billikens hurting, but they may be a solid pick for an unexpected run.
Cinderellas:
Santa Clara
I truly believe that this region is the only region with the potential for pure chaos. And that starts with this Broncos team, which was so good this season that it forced the selection committee to take three West Coast Conference teams. Santa Clara has one bad loss to Loyola Marymount, but other than that has only lost to power-five Arizona State and quad one opponents. They also hold two wins over fellow tournament team and conference-mate Saint Mary's and were within ten points of beating Gonzaga all three times they faced off, including a nine point loss in the WCC championship after leading for the entire first half. The Broncos are a very strong rebounding team, and should go down to the wire with Kentucky. If they can prove themselves in the first round, they should be able to gain confidence and make a run, where I can see them hitting their ceiling during the second weekend.
Akron
The Zips have been overshadowed the entire season. When you're in the same conference as the only undefeated team in the country, you're bound to lose the majority of the attention. However, Akron has been the best team in the Mid-American Conference all season, losing only a tight game to Miami (OH) in conference play before winning the MAC tournament on a championship-winning three over Toledo. The Zips haven't yet won a quad one or quad two game this season, but lost by three to Miami (OH), three to Yale, and less than twenty to Purdue. Akron has a huge rebounding force in Lyles to go against a Texas Tech team missing their star center JT Toppin. Similar to how Clemson collapsed against McNeese last year in the first round, I could see a similar fate allowing Akron to advance. And if Hofstra has enough three-point firepower to get past Alabama, the Zips should be headed to the Sweet 16, where their run would likely end.
Missing that spark:
Alabama
Texas Tech
Kentucky
Georgia
Southern Methodist
Miami (OH)
Straight to Cancun:
Hofstra
Wright State
Tennessee State
UMBC
Howard
West (San Francisco)
Region Favorites:
Florida
After a rough start featuring losses that have aged very well to Arizona, Duke, Connecticut, and even TCU, Florida completely flipped the switch in conference play. The Gators have a strong case to be the top team in the entire country in 2026, though their destruction at the hands of Vanderbilt in the Southeastern Conference tournament semifinals is worrying. However, Florida had an almost unblemished run through an SEC that sent ten teams dancing, (and almost two more) featuring wins over tournament Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, Alabama, and a whopping three wins over Kentucky. The Gators may encounter foes Vanderbilt once again in the Sweet 16 and must be ready to take revenge, but the true test will come in a rematch of last year's national championship with Houston in the Elite 8. If the Gators can get hot enough to reach Indianapolis, they have more than enough star power and depth to power their way to back-to-back titles.
Houston
The Cougars have come oh-so-close, but is this finally the year for Kelvin Sampson and Houston? The Big 12 tournament was inspiring for those looking to pick Houston, as the Cougars were able to stack up a win against BYU, a complete domination of Kansas, and almost came back in the championship game against Arizona before falling by five. Houston may have six losses, but has yet to lose to a team outside of the top twenty and is still not appreciated enough by the public. Saint Mary's would be a tough draw in the second round, but a typically inconsistent Illinois shouldn't pose much of a threat, meaning the Cougars would supposedly get another shot at Florida in the Big Dance, this time with a trip to Indianapolis on the line. Houston has played close games all year against top teams and sports wins over Arkansas, Texas Tech, BYU, and Kansas, but will need guards Flemings and Sharp to be in top form to lead the team to a long-awaited championship.
Vanderbilt
The Commodores should not be a good basketball program, but they are back dancing and had the best start to a Vanderbilt season in history. The metrics love Vanderbilt, powered by a high-caliber offense that has scored 105 points multiple times against top teams and a strong group of rebounders that allows anyone on the court to fight for the ball off the glass. The Commodores will have to avoid losses to lower-seeded teams, which they may be prone to after losses to SEC bubble teams Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas. But, Vanderbilt is hot despite the SEC tournament championship game loss to Arkansas with recent victories over Tennessee (twice) and Florida.
Dark Horses:
Saint Mary's
All three West Coast Conference representatives are going to be threats this March, but Saint Mary's may be the most underrated. Saint Mary's holds one of the top mid-major wins over Gonzaga, and only has one loss early in the season to Boise State outside of quad one. Despite a disappointing loss to Santa Clara in the WCC tournament semifinals, Saint Mary's has been remarkably consistent all year and the Gaels have proven they can outscore (93 points against Seattle) or out-defend (59 points allowed to Gonzaga) any team in the nation. The starting lineup is very solid led by forward Murauskas and guards Lewis and Dent, and Saint Mary's could pose unexpected problems for Houston and foes beyond if the Gaels get past Texas A&M in round one.
Iowa
These Hawkeyes might be the best nine seed this year, and despite going cold at the worst possible time, should be able to pose a threat in a second rounder against Florida. Even with losses to Minnesota, Maryland, and Penn State, Iowa clearly has a high ceiling. The Hawkeyes have beaten Ohio State, UCLA, and hold a top ten win over Nebraska. Some of their losses are also encouraging in quad one, with a four point loss to Iowa State, a seven point loss to Purdue, and a three point loss to Michigan. If Iowa can figure out how to win close games against top teams, the Hawkeyes could reasonably make a run, but don't count on it; Florida's still the favorite in that one, and Saint Mary's is the better dark horse.
Cinderellas:
Virginia Commonwealth
VCU has a prime opportunity this year to make a long-awaited repeat run in March Madness. Can they make the Final Four again? I don't know about that. But can they create chaos? Certainly. The Rams are very hot and have shed their blown lead to Saint Louis that cost them the A-10 regular season title. They held off Duquesne before dominating Saint Joe's and Dayton to secure themselves a spot in the dance. VCU has a couple of questionable losses, but form typically seems to be the biggest factor and these Rams have a ton of it. All but one loss the Rams have are against tournament teams and a matchup against a North Carolina team without star Wilson works in their favor. VCU has to work hard on the glass against UNC, but should they get by defensively, they have a serious chance against inconsistent Illinois in the second round and may have a path if Saint Mary's is able to take out Houston.
Troy
The final team to talk about is the Trojans. They were gifted pretty much the easiest possible path through the Sun Belt tournament, earning quad four wins over Southern Miss and Gerogia Southern, but have a remarkable resume. Despite only playing four games in quads one and two, Troy is 3-1, with victories over Akron and at UAB, an overtime win at San Diego State, and a one-point overtime loss at Southern Cal. Troy was gifted the perfect first-round draw as a 13-seed against Nebraska, who has gotten colder as the Trojans have heated up. If you're looking for this year's thirteen over four upset, this is likely your best pick (followed by Hofstra over Alabama) with a deep Troy lineup primed to take advantage of Nebraska's weak rebounding.
Missing that spark:
Illinois
Nebraska
North Carolina
Clemson
Texas A&M
Straight to Cancun:
McNeesse State
Pennsylvania
Idaho
Lehigh
Prarie View A&M
Predictions in Full:
First Four:
16 UMBC 78, 16 Howard 64
11 NC State 68, 11 Texas 67
16 Lehigh 69, 16 PVA&M 45
11 SMU 76, 11 Miami (OH) 60
East:
1 Duke 89, 16 Siena 71
8 Ohio State 97, 9 TCU 93
5 St. John's 86, 12 Northern Iowa 70
4 Kansas 75, 13 California Baptist 68
11 South Florida 81, 6 Louisville 77
3 Michigan State 77, 14 North Dakota St. 54
7 UCLA 78, 10 UCF 75
2 Connecticut 84, 15 Furman 54
1 Duke 76, 8 Ohio State 75
4 Kansas 72, 5 St. John's 65
3 Michigan State 80, 11 South Florida 67
7 UCLA 76, 2 Connecticut 69
1 Duke 85, 4 Kansas 66
3 Michigan State 69, 7 UCLA 60
1 Duke 78, 3 Michigan State 73
South:
1 Florida 89, 16 Lehigh 52
9 Iowa 76, 8 Clemson 71
5 Vanderbilt 88, 12 McNeese 64
4 Nebraska 77, 13 Troy 72
11 VCU 69, 6 North Carolina 58
3 Illinois 91, 14 Pennsylvania 84
7 Saint Mary's 71, 10 Texas A&M 60
2 Houston 82, 15 Idaho 50
1 Florida 79, 8 Iowa 77
5 Vanderbilt 78, 4 Nebraska 72
11 VCU 83, 3 Illinois 69
2 Houston 73, 7 Saint Mary's 70
1 Florida 80, 5 Vanderbilt 73
2 Houston 69, 11 VCU 60
2 Houston 77, 1 Florida 71
West:
1 Arizona 71, 16 Long Island 43
8 Villanova 63, 9 Utah State 57
5 Wisconsin 99, 12 High Point 87
4 Arkansas 85, 13 Hawaii 78
6 BYU 74, 11 NC State 64
3 Gonzaga 79, 14 Kennesaw St. 50
7 Miami (FL) 65, 10 Missouri 62
2 Purdue 89, 15 Queens 76
1 Arizona 83, 8 Villanova 65
4 Arkansas 98, 5 Wisconsin 94
3 Gonzaga 73, BYU 71
2 Purdue 75, 7 Miami (FL) 64
4 Arkansas 87, 1 Arizona 79
2 Purdue 67, 3 Gonzaga 63
4 Arkasnas 93, 2 Purdue 80
Midwest:
1 Michigan 79, 16 Howard 41
9 Saint Louis 60, 8 Georgia 55
12 Akron 83, 5 Texas Tech 69
13 Hofstra 97, 4 Alabama 87
6 Tennessee 68, 11 SMU 60
3 Virginia 73, 14 Wright St. 56
10 Santa Clara 76, 7 Kentucky 58
2 Iowa State 68, 15 Tennessee St. 59
1 Michigan 85, 9 Saint Louis 60
12 Akron 79, 13 Hofstra 68
3 Virginia 67, 6 Tennessee 64
2 Iowa State 77, 10 Santa Clara 71
1 Michigan 69, 12 Akron 68
3 Virginia 84, 2 Iowa State 78
1 Michigan 80, 3 Virginia 70
Final Four:
2 Houston 70, 1 Duke 64
1 Michigan 81, 4 Arkansas 73
2 Houston 74, 1 Michigan 65