What if...The Australian Outback

The Decision

Survivor: The Australian Outback is very different to analyze than Survivor: Borneo. While Borneo had minimal strategy, only one alliance, and a long immunity run that led to the outcome not being changed, The Australian Outback had more concrete relationships and people had an idea of what to expect. To give an example, there were only a couple of unanimous vote-outs in Borneo, but in Australia, the first two votes were both 7-1. The Australian Outback was also the first season to feature a countback, and there are two to choose from. For me, this double-tie situation is fascinating, and the countback rule was only a part of the show for a few seasons. Considering this, the new question is which countback to switch and to what. I think that the Keith-Mitchell tie is far too early to reverse, and the much more meaningful tie is between Varner and Colby at the final ten. So, what if...we use a modern rock draw instead of the countback at the final ten of the Australian Outback?

The Outcome

So what would have happened? After the revote, we simulate the rock draw between the eight without votes since they can't come to a unanimous decision:

Jerri --> White

and in the first tribal council rock draw, Jerri goes home, leaving an alliance of five against an alliance of four. This also means that we already have more voting changes in our twisted version of The Australian Outback than in the entire of Borneo, and expect a lot more to change. The second episode of the post-merge, or episode eight, begins and the Ogakor-Kucha divide is still strong, with Kucha having the numbers. Amber wins reward and likely brings Elisabeth with her to try to grasp on to any footing with her tribe down in the numbers. Keith still wins immunity, meaning Amber, Colby, and Tina are most likely to go as they are in the minority alliance. Colby is by far the biggest physical and strategic threat of those who are left:

Varner --> Colby

Tina --> Nick

Colby --> Nick

Amber --> Nick

Elisabeth --> Colby

Rodger --> Colby

Nick --> Colby

Alecia --> Colby

Keith --> Nick

and America's man goes home at the final nine, leaving Kucha with a 5-3 majority. In episode ten, the Kuchas finally have the numbers to ponder taking out one of their own, and Elisabeth wins reward and takes Rodger from her alliance. Nick clutches up immunity to ensure he isn't a target for a Kucha flip, and the targets are either Keith for finally not having immunity or Alecia for being a huge physical threat:

Varner --> Keith

Tina --> Alecia

Amber --> Alecia

Elisabeth --> Keith

Rodger --> Keith

Nick --> Keith

Alecia --> Keith

Keith --> Alecia

sending Keith home in a 5-3 vote and giving Kucha a huge 5-2 advantage heading into episode eleven. The survivors replenish their food sources at the auction, and Nick edges out Alecia in the immunity challenge once again. Amber is well-insulated with Elisabeth and Rodger, and Nick and Alecia continue their alliance, leaving Tina and Varner un-aligned but in the swing vote position. Tina sides with the former, and so does Varner due to being close with Rodger:

Varner --> Alecia

Tina --> Alecia

Amber --> Alecia

Elisabeth --> Alecia

Rodger --> Alecia

Nick --> Tina

Alecia --> Tina

leaving Nick on the very bottom of The Australian Outback. Episode twelve rolls around, and Varner wins reward, followed by Amber winning immunity. The main Kucha alliance still holds control of the game, but the decision is between keeping the alliance strong or voting out a core alliance threat:

Varner --> Nick

Tina --> Nick

Amber --> Nick

Elisabeth --> Nick

Rodger --> Nick

Nick --> Tina

and the Kucha three decide on the former, sending Nick out of the game and solidifying their final five alliance. In the final five, Tina wins reward and Varner wins immunity, but it doesn't matter as he is the swing vote between the two halves of the alliance:

Tina --> Elisabeth

Amber --> Elisabeth

Elisabeth --> Tina

Rodger --> Tina

Varner --> Elisabeth

with Varner realizing that Elisabeth is a big threat to win the game due to her likely getting sympathy votes (yes, Varner has a strategy). In episode fourteen, Varner wins the car (curse), and Rodger wins immunity, meaning the alliance has to turn on itself:

Tina --> Varner

Amber --> Varner

Rodger --> Tina

Varner --> Tina

and with the countback twist no longer existing, Amber and Rodger can unanimously decide or draw rocks, and Rodger switches his vote to Varner:

Amber --> Varner

Rodger --> Varner

sending him home as the penultimate jury member. In the finale, Tina wins due to knowing the most about the jury members, and chooses to sit next to Rodger at final tribal due to him being much less of a strategic threat than Amber and mostly a goat:

Tina --> Amber

so Tina and Rodger pitch their cases to the jury, Tina's about her strategic maneuvering despite being in the minority and Rodger about loyalty. I also want to try something fun and reveal the votes in the way they would be on TV:

Colby --> Tina

"Your game has been so good, and if I would have wanted anyone to win besides me, it would have been you."

Elisabeth --> Rodger

"You did such a great job both in the game and in explaining your game at tribal, and I couldn't be rooting for you more."

Varner --> Rodger

"Rodger. Two votes Rodger"

Keith --> Tina

"Tina. We're tied. Two votes Tina, two votes Rodger."

Nick --> Tina

"Tina. Three votes Tina."

Amber --> Tina

"The winner of Survivor: The Australian Outback...Tina! The last one is yours as well."

So, once again, we have the exact same winner, and I think that speaks to the versatility and adaptability of both games. I mean, Tina was so, so, likeable, and her connection to Amber allows her to get in with the Kucha majority. As in her original game, she stays under the radar, and is able to outspeak her opponent at final tribal after taking out her biggest threat in Amber. It's a very different game with very different personalities and deep runs, but the endgame is similar. Tina deserved to win in 2001, and she deserves to win it now...

What if...Borneo

I'm ready to start a new series. While studying for my AP Chemistry midterm in between my studies of Survivor: Kaoh Rong and Aubry Bracco ahead of Survivor 50, I came up with what I believe is my greatest idea. What if...what if? Yeah, I know that makes absolutely zero sense. But seriously, what if...I did a series about the biggest what ifs on Survivor. What if Erik didn't give up immunity? What if Woo didn't take Kass? What if Brandon didn't have a meltdown? There are so, so many possibilities based on the most major decisions in Survivor, and these are just the most notable I can think of from the seasons I've watched. My idea is to reverse these decisions, or give these events another outcome, and think about what would have happened, including the eventual winner. Without further ado, let's go through the decision on the best turning point in Survivor: Borneo, and where to go from there.

The Decision

Finding an event that really sticks out is pretty difficult in Borneo. The game was very simple, and there was very little strategy. After all, nobody knew what to expect or what to do. I could go into the creation of the first ever Survivor alliance, the first ever Survivor showmance, the first and only voting off due to wanting to create the second ever alliance (yes, that happened), and so much more. However, I think the interesting thing to consider is Kelly Wigglesworth's throwaway vote during the Jenna Lewis (more Survivor 50) blindside. This wasn't an attempt at jury management (they barely had alliances and that definitely wasn't a thing yet), but was simply a throwaway vote because Kelly was closely bonded to Jenna. However, it made Wigglesworth's alliance of Richard, Rudy, and Sue begin to suspect her. Without further ado, here is what I believe would have happened had Kelly Wigglesworth voted with her alliance in the Jenna Lewis blindside.

The Outcome

So what would have happened? The remaining players in Survivor Borneo after Jenna's blindside were:

Richard

Rudy

Sue

Kelly

Sean

Colleen

Gervase

so with four votes, it Survivor's first alliance should easily get to the end.

In episode ten, Gervase still wins have won reward, and Rudy still criticizes him. Richard still would wons Survivor's first of many fire-making challenges, earning him immunity and a spot in the final six. Gervase and Colleen are still on the bottom, and Gervase is still the much bigger target. The votes are the same:

Richard --> Gervase

Rudy --> Gervase

Sue --> Gervase

Kelly --> Gervase

Sean --> Gervase

Colleen --> Sean

Gervase --> Sean

and Sean still obviously follows his alphabet strategy, sending Gervase home in a 5-2 vote. The original version of episode eleven begins with Kelly hanging out with Colleen, and the rest of her alliance is immediately on her case for jury management (finally). However, in this alternate reality, Kelly never attempts jury management and doesn't betray her alliance, so the episode truly starts with Sean's reward challenge win, where he brings Richard to solidify his spot in the alliance. Again, in this alternate reality, Kelly doesn't get angry with her alliance because she didn't have the initial break-up moment with her alliance in episode nine. However, it doesn't matter, as Kelly wins individual immunity and the target remains Colleen:

Richard --> Colleen

Rudy --> Colleen

Sue --> Colleen

Kelly --> Colleen

Sean --> Colleen

Colleen --> Sean

with the latter going home in a 5-1 vote. In episode twelve, Sue and Kelly never get into their notorious fight because Kelly doesn't vote against her alliance at tribal, and Richard never gets the chance to smooth things over. Kelly wins yet another challenger, earning reward with Jeff, and then wins yet another challenge at immunity, though this time she doesn't necessarily need it to guarantee her safety. Once again, we can simply just go through the results of the actual tribal, and at this point Sean is even less insulated in the alliance than he is in real life:

Richard --> Sean

Rudy --> Sean

Sue --> Sean

Kelly --> Sean

Sean --> Kelly

sending the creator of the alphabet strategy home in a 4-1 vote. The finale begins, and Kelly wins a maybe-not-so-clutch third immunity in a row to guarantee her spot in the final four. I do think it is a clutch immunity, as she is the best target due to not being as insulated in the alliance as Sue, Rich, or Rudy. Richard and Rudy are obviously going to vote together, and Kelly sides with Sue against Richard as in real life (if she somehow sided with Sue after the fight in real life, she certainly will side with Sue without the fight), leading to the first revote in Survivor history:

Richard --> Sue

Rudy --> Sue

Sue --> Richard

Kelly --> Richard

Since Rudy won't flip on Richard and Kelly doesn't want to go to rocks, she sides with the men to vote out Sue, and likely once again loses her vote by flipping:

Rudy --> Sue

Kelly --> Sue

and sending the snake and the rat to the jury in a 2-0 vote. Kelly still wins final immunity, and still debates which of her allies off:

Kelly --> Rudy

deciding on Rudy due to his lovability and not having betrayed any of the jury members. So, we once again have a final tribal council between Kelly Wigglesworth and Richard Hatch; will this one go any differently? Pagongs Jenna, Colleen, and Gervase still favor Kelly, and Tikas Rudy and Sean certainly vote for Rich. Sean still goes against his alphabet strategy to vote for the better strategic player, and Greg still votes for whoever guesses closest to his number:

Rudy --> Richard

Sue --> Richard

Sean --> Richard

Colleen --> Kelly

Gervase --> Kelly

Jenna --> Kelly

Greg --> Richard

meaning none of the jury votes change despite Kelly no longer socially isolating herself and destroying her alliance, and neither do any of the regular vote-offs either. Borneo's outcome staying the EXACT same is going to be a rare occurance, especially considering the higher level of strategy in pretty much every other season. However, it's interesting to see that due to Kelly's string of immunities and flip on Sue, she still can't turn a single jury vote and still loses due to picking the wrong number...

Lions or Eagles: Which team will take home the AFCON title in 2025?

Tier 1: The Favorites

The Atlas Lions

Hosts Morocco are about as big of a favorite as you can be in as unpredictable a tournament as AFCON. Knocked out in the Round of 16 in 2023 to eventual semifinalists South Africa, Morocco had a very successful group stage before landing an unlucky draw in the second stage. They drew against DR Congo but defeated both Zambia and Tanzania. Placed in Group F, they were forced to face the second placed team in Group E instead of a team finishing third. This led to an uneventful knockout against South Africa, and the team with such high expectations flopped. However, three years ago, this Morocco team topped a group with defending finalists Croatia, a Belgium team still featuring elements of its golden era, and a very dynamic threat in Canada, before defeating Spain and Portugal to reach the World Cup semifinals. Morocco also went six for six and topped their qualifying group with two victories over Gabon, so the Atlas Lions have shown glimpses of greatness recently as well. The question is, which version of Morocco will show up?

The Lions of Teranga

The other lions are co-favorites to win AFCON this year, and will certainly be hoping to reclaim their form. Senegal topped a difficult Group C in 2023, with wins over Cameroon, Guinea, and Gambia. However, they suffered a similar fate and lost on penalties to eventual champion and host Ivory Coast, who turned around their form after a lackluster group stage. The Lions were able to navigate a tricky group with The Netherlands and Ecuador at the 2022 World Cup to take second place, but couldn't overcome England in the Round of 16 and fell 3-0. Senegal was strong in qualifying, with five wins and the only dropped points coming in a 1-1 draw with Burkina Faso. Senegal is consistently good, but can they be great enough to overcome everyone else on Africa's biggest stage?

The Super Eagles

Now if you're looking for extreme inconsistency with extreme talent, you've reached the right place. Nigeria has Africa's strongest side on paper by far, with Galatasaray's Victor Osimhen, Atalanta's Ademola Lookman, and Fulham's Alex Iwobi leading the star-studded attack. However, the chemistry often does not seem to be there, and the Super Eagles suffer greatly when the attack doesn't line up. After escaping a group with Cape Verde, Nigeria lost via extra time to Ghana to fail to qualify to the 2022 World Cup. The 2026 campaign was arguably weaker. After a loss to Benin and a draw with Lesotho, Nigeria was only able to snag a spot in the second-place playoff with a huge victory over Benin on the final matchday and a rule that rewarded Nigeria's two draws to last-placed Zimbabwe. Even then, Nigeria only took out Gabon in extra time and then lost on pentalties to DR Congo. 2023 AFCON was a bright spot, in which Nigeria made the final with wins over Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Cameroon, Angola, and South Africa, but couldn't get it done in the end when the hosts avenged the group stage defeat.

Tier 2: The Contenders

The Pyramids

Egypt has a star in Mo Salah, but he is really struggling at the moment in the Premier League with Liverpool in a slump. The attack may not flourish without him at his best, and it is difficult to tell how good Egypt will be due to not being pushed in either the 2025 AFCON qualifying campaign or the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign. Egypt fell in the Round of 16 in AFON 2023 in an absurd 8-7 pentaly shootout loss to DR Congo after drawing all three matches in the group stage to Cape Verde, Ghana, and Mozambique.

The Foxes

Algeria is another team that is very difficult to gauge. The Foxes flopped terribly in what was by far the easiest group of AFCON 2023, finishing bottom with draws to Angola and Burkina Faso and a loss to Mauritania that eliminated them on the final matchday. They also failed to reach the knockouts in 2021 with only a single draw against Sierra Leone. However, it's difficult to overlook the run to the AFCON title in 2019. Algeria cruised through both 2025 AFCON and 2026 World Cup qualifying, though they were in arguably very favorable groups both times. Time will tell whether Algeria can beat the streak and finally make it out of their favorable group, featuring Burkina Faso, Equitorial Guinea, and Sudan.

The Elephants

The defending champions are looking to make another run to the AFCON title. 2023 was a complete roller coaster. They barely squeezed out of Group A thanks to a shocking goalkeeper error by Ghana and fired their manager before their Round of 16 game. This worked magically, as Cote d'Ivoire took out Senegal, Mali, DR Congo, and Nigeria in a row to win the tournament as hosts. 2026 World Cup qualifying was a huge win for The Elephants, as their victory over Gabon separated the two teams at the top and allowed Ivory Coast to qualify for their first World Cup in twelve years.

Tier 3: The Knockout Threats

Bafana Bafana

This nickname will always be primarily tied to Tshabalala's opening goal at the 2010 World Cup, but South Africa has been having quite the resurgence in recent years. After losing out on the 2022 World Cup final qualifying round by just a single goal scored and the third tiebreaker, South Africa bounced back to take second in Group E at AFCON 2023 and carried the momentum to wins over Morocco and Cape Verde before finally being beaten in a penalty duel by Nigeria. Bafana Bafana then secured qualification to the 2026 World Cup in an ugly Group C shootout, even after a points deduction, and cruised through AFCON qualification. South Africa is a team to definitely watch for.

The Indomitable Lions

Cameroon is an interesting case. Sometimes they look like they can keep up with the top teams in Africa, and sometimes they look like a second-tier team. In AFCON 2023, they finished second on goals scored in Group C and bowed out to Nigeria in the Round of 16. In 2026 World Cup qualifying, they finished second to debutants Cape Verde before losing to DR Congo in the second round and missing out entirely. However they topped their 2025 AFCON and 2022 World Cup qualifying groups and put up a very strong fight in the World Cup itself, drawing with Serbia and defeating Brazil.

The Leopards

DR Congo has had a very strong couple of years in international football. After being destroyed by Morocco in the final round of 2022 World Cup qualifying, The Leopards bounced back to finish second in 2023 AFCON Group F with three draws before taking out Egypt and Guinea on route to a semifinal appearance. In 2026 World Cup qualifying, DR Congo finished second in the group stage to Senegal before overcoming Cameroon and Nigeria to seal their spot in the inter-confederation playoffs. AFCON 2025 qualifying was even more encouraging, as they topped their group.

The Eagles of Carthage

Tunisia has also been a very consistently strong team for years, qualifying for their record 17th straight AFCON and the last three World Cups. However, they haven't performed well at last few tournaments themselves. They finished last in an arguably difficult Group E at AFCON 2023 and bowed out of the past two World Cups in the group stage despite wins over France and Panama. Tunisia has what it takes to compete on the biggest stage, but they need to turn consistency into a couple of strong performances to win AFCON again.

Tier 4: The Potential Runs

The Panthers

Like many of the teams mentioned above, Gabon has multiple identities. There's the team that missed AFCON 2023 and the 2022 World Cup, and there's the team that thrived in 2026 World Cup qualifying and 2025 AFCON qualifying. Which team will show up, and can Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang finally achieve something with The Panthers?

The Eagles

Yep, more Eagles. Mali is by far Africa's most underachieving team in the past decade. They have so much talent and have shown glimpses of greatness, but The Eagles have failed to make an impact. AFCON 2021, Round of 16 against Equatorial Guinea on penalties; World Cup 2022, lost to Tunisia in the final round of qualifying 1-0; AFCON 2023, lost to Ivory Coast in the quarterfinals after extra time; World Cup 2026, finished third behind Madagascar in the group stage of qualifying. They have to do it sometime, and AFCON 2025 seems like the perfect place to shine in a group with Morocco, Zambia, and Comoros.

The Stallions

Another team that has slightly underperformed expectations is Burkina Faso. The Stallions were unlucky to be placed in a group with Egypt in 2026 World Cup qualifying, but capitalized on a weak bottom half of their 2025 AFCON qualifying group to finish second behind Senegal and qualify. They had a chance to perform well at 2023 AFCON but struggled in a group with Mauritania, Algeria, and Angola before losting to Mali in the Round of 16.

Tier 4: Group Threats

The Coelacanths

I'll be honest. I have no clue what a Coelacanth is, but these Coelacanths are very, very dangerous. Everyone seems to be picking them to finish an easy last place in Group A, which is possible as the group is very strong with Morocco, Mali, and Zambia. However, I think Comoros can shock and qualify very easily. They reached the knockouts in 2021 on their debut and just missed out on qualification for the 2023 event. Comoros topped Tunisia, The Gambia, and Madagascar in Group A of AFCON 2025 qualification and come into the tournament in great form. Expect the unexpected in Group A and beyond.

The Cheetahs

This is Benin's chance to redeem themselves, but that's only because they performed so much better than expected in World Cup qualification. Yes, it's partially because South Africa fielded an ineligible player and got docked three points, but Benin was top of Group C with a matchday to go, a group featuring Nigeria and South Africa. Ultimately, The Cheetahs were destroyed on Matchday 10 by Nigeria, giving up not only a direct 2026 World Cup spot but also a chance at the intercontinental playoffs, but the entire campaign was positive. Benin should be looking to surprise either DR Congo or Senegal in Group D and should have at least one free result against Botswana.

Full Predictions

Group A

Morocco (9)

Comoros (3)

Mali (2)

Zambia (2)

Group B

Egypt (7)

South Africa (7)

Angola (3)

Zimbabwe (0)

Group C

Tunisia (6)

Nigeria (6)

Uganda (4)

Tanzania (1)

Group D

Senegal (9)

DR Congo (6)

Benin (3)

Botswana (0)

Group E

Algeria (7)

Equitorial Guinea (5)

Burkina Faso (4)

Sudan (0)

Group F

Cameroon (5)

Ivory Coast (5)

Gabon (3)

Mozambique (1)

Third Place

Uganda (4)

Burkina Faso (4)

Gabon (3)

Benin (3)

Angola (3)

Mali (2)

Round of 16

Nigeria def. Comoros

Senegal def. Burkina Faso

Egypt def. Benin

Equitorial Guinea def. Cameroon

South Africa def. Ivory Coast

Morocco def. Uganda

DR Congo def. Algeria

Gabon def. Tunisia

Quarterfinals

Nigeria def. Senegal

Egypt def. Equitorial Guinea

South Africa def. Morocco

Gabon def. DR Congo

Semifinals

Egypt def. Nigeria

South Africa def. Gabon

Third Place

Nigeria def. Gabon

Final

South Africa def. Egypt

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