The Leader, The Machine, or The Observer: Who will take the title at this weekend's finale at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

What happened at the 2025 Qatar Grand Prix?

Qatar should have been Oscar's weekend. Fastest in FP1, fastest in sprint qualifying, fastest in the sprint, fastest in qualifying, and fastest in the race. Yet, he now sits third in the championship. As he put it, "speechless. Absolutely speechless."

Well, there are definitely things to say. For one, Nico Hulkenberg and Pierre Gasly just pulled off the biggest move of the season...for Max. The best driver each in the worst two cars of the season fought intensely for the first seven laps of the main race in Qatar, and then suddenly had a huge crash. Hulkenberg couldn't move and had to retire, and Gasly took major damage and dropped far out of the points, though he was eventually able to finish the race.

Another factor for last weekend's results was the absurd amount of tyre wear in Qatar because of the conditions. The track is literally in a desert, and in turn, the FIA limited every tyre stint to 25 laps, no matter which type of tyre. So, in a 57 lap race, that means a potential 7-25-25 with two mandatory pit stops, and when the virtual safety car was deployed on lap seven, Max immediately pitted his Red Bull. Then, the entire field followed him in for a tyre change...except for McLaren. Owner turned team principal Zak Brown told his drivers to keep calm and that they had the better strategy than Max, but doubts set in when championship leader Lando Norris saw Verstappen in his rearview mirror while still under the safety car.

Max then kept pace with the McLarens with fresher tyres and a pit stop in hand before Norris and then Piastri pitted on laps 24 and 25 respectively, putting them far behind Verstappen and with ground to make up. Every driver then pitted one more time and the McLarens gained ground on fresher tires, but ultimately, Lando could only finish fourth and Oscar second, meaning the former's gap heading into Abu Dhabi is only 12 to Max and 16 to his teammate.

FP1 and FP2 Breakdown

In my opinion, there is really only one thing to take away from Free Practice One in Abu Dhabi. With the large amount of F2 and reserve drivers taking over cars in the session, nine of the twenty to be exact, there wasn't much competition between teammates and many drivers weren't to be found on the grid. Most notable was the absence of championship contender Oscar Piastri, whose car was driven by McLaren reserve driver and IndyCar runner-up Pato O'Ward. Next year's VCARB rookie Arvid Lindblad finished 15th and just under eight tenths off of the leader, and the nine rookies took up nine of the last ten spots on the grid, with only Haas's Ryo Hirakawa finishing a spot above the newest Red Bull promotee Isack Hadjar. Anyway, the main takeaway is that Charles Leclerc's car doesn't look completely undriveable, which is great news for Max Verstappen, who will need at least one non-McLaren to finish on the podium besides himself if he wants to win the championship.

FP2 was the first session of the weekend to feature all of the drivers that will be participating in the main race, and Lando Norris topped by over three tenths (bad news for everyone else). Ollie Bearman looked amazing in P4 and praised his car after his flying lap, Kick Sauber placed Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoletto in P5 and P6, and Hadjar jumped back up to P7. Oscar Piastri was a very lackluster P11 in his first session of the weekend, and Williams and Alpine were the teams to fail to put a driver in the top half.

Podium Predictions

Here are my predictions for the podium finishers at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix:

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - I think the most likely outcome for this race is that Max does his part for his championship hopes and wins this race. He has a good record and great memories in Abu Dhabi and has won the last two races.

   
   

2. Lando Norris (McLaren) - Lando looks the faster of the two McLarens this weekend and topped the first two practice sessions. He must stand on the podium this weekend to absolutely guarantee his first championship, and it looks like he will take the title.

   
   

3. George Russell (Mercedes) - With Oscar Piastri way off the pace this weekend, it seems like we'll get a non-McLaren and non-Max car on the podium. Russell has looked very quick around Yas Marina so far.

Five Spicy Hot Takes

Now, let’s spice things up with some bold hot takes for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, rated from 1 to 5 spicy pepper emojis:

1. 🌶️ - Yuki goes out with a bang. I don't know if he'll score big. I don't even know if he'll score. But he'll do something.

   
   

2. 🌶️🌶️ - Antonelli finally takes P6. Antonelli has had the momentum on his side for months, and Hamilton looks terrible in the Ferrari. I think the Italian can score the three points needed to move up.

   
   

3. 🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Haas back to P7. The American outfit sits only seven points adrift of Aston Martin after last week's disappointment, but if Ollie Bearman's car is as good all weekend as he says it is, then they could jump to P7 at the final time of asking.

   
   

4. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - A new man in P8. It has been a very, very, very long time since we've had somebody not named Alex Albon in P8 in the drivers' championship. But, with the Thai scoreless in full races since Monza and his teammate on a roll, Sainz may finally displace Albon for P8 to win the Williams battle.

   
   

5. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - For a second week straight, Lando.

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