Is it finally Ferrari's phenom's time: All you need to know going into this weekend's 2026 Monaco Grand Prix

"His career was finished without the intervention of the late Jules Bianchi who said to Ferrari you’ve got to take this guy, you’ve got to make sure he gets to Formula 1. And what a gift that was to give. In 2017, Charles Leclerc lost his father and in his final days, he told his father a white lie. That he’d made it to Formula 1; that he’d signed the contract. It wasn’t true then but his driving has made it true now, and look what he’s done with the opportunity. The grandstands he saw built as a kid growing up now rise for him and for the first time in 93 years this fabled race is won by one of their own. Charles Leclerc wins the Monaco Grand Prix..."

This is the only quote that sends shivers down my spine. It may not for you, but having seen the race live, this commentary of the 2024 Monaco Grand Prix is special. And now, Ferrari have a chance to give Charles a shot at achieving his great dream once again.

What has transpired this season so far?

I wanted to give a little bit of time before restarting the predictions since this season has been so entertaining and so unpredictable. I know you may say, "well...Mercedes has won all five Grand Prix and Kimi has won the last four races," but to that, I say, "Well, there have been four teams that have had drivers solidly in the lead of a race, and the season has changed so much on a race-to-race basis, not even to mention the DNFs and strategy errors that have turned potential wins into failures."

This seems like the perfect race to pick back up. Charles Leclerc is the favorite in his home race, and we finally get to see what this grid will look like without Acitve Aero. It may not be a good thing, but it's a change and we will have a different type of race. For all of the complaining about "mario kart" racing, this weekend will be a true test of deploying the smallest amount of energy available in history and pure driving skill.

Will Kimi and George continue to fight for the lead in the Drivers', or will one or both of the Ferrari drivers begin a charge towards the coveted title and gain the team massive points in the Constructors'? These are the big questions heading into Monaco, and with Mercedes's worse engine and worse car in the corners, this is Ferrari's big chance to get back in the race. Who will win the Monaco Grand Prix?

FP1 and FP2 Breakdown

The last time I wrote a F1 prediction article, this section was pretty much useless. But the variation and sandbagging has gone, and we now have a clear breakdown of which teams and drivers are likely to perform well in qualifying, which will be more important than ever around the streets of Monaco this year.

Free Practice 1 brought a few changes to the typical pecking order we've seen all season between the teams. Ferrari topped the time sheet with a Leclerc-Hamilton 1-2, and Red Bull's Verstappen stole third over Mercedes's Antonelli and then Russell, with Verstappen's teammate Hadjar a full ten places behind him. McLaren were the next-best team but Audi were the fifth best constructor in the session with Hulkenberg in seventh to split the McLarens and Bortoletto in ninth. Alpine's Gasly rounded out the top ten of the session with the Williams pair right behind, and Cadillac's Perez posted one of his best results of the season with the 14th best time.

Free Practice 2 mainly reinforced the trends seen in the first session. Hamilton took Leclerc's spot at the top of the time sheet by just over a tenth of a second, and Verstappen again took third from the Mercedes pair with his teammate Hadjar in sixth. McLaren's Piastri landed seventh but his teammate Norris just barely avoided the barriers and ended with the 19th best time. Audi confirmed their speed for the weekend in eighth and ninth while Hass's Ollie Bearman jumped into the tenth spot, pushing Gasly and the Williams pair down a spot to 11th through 13th. The Astons failed to recover in FP2 and are clearly the slowest car of the weekend, with Alonso again in 20th and Stroll once more in last.

Podium Predictions

Here are my predictions for the podium finishers at the 2026 Australian Grand Prix:

Australian Grand Prix

1. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - The stars just have to align here. He's the fastest driver. He's the best qualifier on the grid at the race where qualifying matters most. He's in the fastest car for this race. He's the home favorite. So, it would take a disaster only Ferrari is capable of to stop Leclerc's win. I don't think it will happen. He has to win.

   
   

2. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - Verstappen should have what it takes to split the Ferraris at Monaco. He's super quick and has been able to drag what has clearly not been a fabulous car to superb results. After Hamilton snatched second at the last moment in Canada from Verstappen, I expect Verstappen to do the same at Monaco from Hamilton.

   
   

3. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) - This seems like Lewis's big chance at a win, but I don't think he has what it takes anymore to compete with his younger teammate in a long, physical battle, and I wouldn't be surprised if Ferrari makes a bad strategy call that costs Lewis further time on track.

Five Spicy Hot Takes

Now, let’s spice things up with some bold hot takes for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, rated from 1 to 5 spicy pepper emojis:

1. 🌶️ - Lance Stroll escapes last. I mean I don't think this is too outrageous to say with 21 other drivers circling the tight streets of Monaco almost eighty times. Hopefully for my predictions' sake the first to crash isn't Lance.

   
   

2. 🌶️🌶️ - One Alpine outqualifies one major contender. Alpine doesn't look spectacularly quick this weekend, but this should definitely be possible. McLaren looks slow, and we never know which version of Isack Hadjar we will get. I could see Pierre Gasly outqualifying one of the three aforementioned cars once again.

   
   

3. 🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Audi double points. No, I unfortunately won't be predicting another Hulk podium. However, with the speed of Audi's car this weekend through the corners, I think they can get some huge points and more than double their tally thus far this season.

   
   

4. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - A huge crash of contenders. Not sure if it will be a huge Ferrari crash, or more likely a huge Mercedes crash, but I think with the way the drivers have been racing and the narrowness of Monaco, we could be in for a huge double DNF between teammates.

   
   

5. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - A first point for Cadillac. You really never know. Perez is driving quite well in the car, although it clearly has reliability issues. But around Monaco, even with a bad car and no rain, all it takes is one spectacular qualifying lap to be in a points position for a large portion of the race. I say Cadillac may be able to get Perez into tenth with a nice strategy call this weekend.