The New Era: What will the era of rotating wings bring at the 2026 Australian GP?

What happened at testing?

If I could pick a movie to describe the 2026 Formula One season thus far, it would be Frozen. I know that sounds incredibly silly, but we are truly going "into the unknown." Free practices have given some additional information, but four teams have finished in the top three in the two sessions thus far in Melbourne.

The unknown isn't helped by the quite clear attempts to sandbag by the main championship contenders. Mercedes, McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari were all pointing at each other as the fastest and accusing the others of not showing their true pace. The truth is that those eight cars will be very tight while others will struggle with reliability issues. Red Bull have Verstappen and a competitive-looking Hadjar in a car that looks drivable, McLaren have the reigning world champion (hotline?) and should be very competitive, Ferrari have innovations like their strange but speed-increasing rotating wing, and Mercedes seem to be the only team with the power unit of their name to not have major issues.

The biggest stories came out of the midfield. Audi look as though they will be immensly competitive, at least in Melbourne, at least more than expected. Racing Bulls seem to have two capable drivers and Lindblad seems to have somewhat learned how to live life in F1. Williams remain overweight but will need to shed to the minimum weight throughout the 2026 campaign. Haas are rapid but may be lacking the endurance and lap times to put Bearman on a podium. Alpine seem to have what it takes to get Colapinto some points and compete for fifth. Cadillac are expectedly slow in their first F1 season but don't seem as far off as would be expected. And of course, Aston Martin's car does not function at all, which we'll get into plenty.

FP1 and FP2 Breakdown

Free practice, as I said before, told us very little about the true running order. FP1 was all Ferrari, as the Italians led the way in the first true session of 2026. Leclerc dominated by almost half a second over his teammate Hamilton, who in turn led the Red Bull duo of Verstappen and Hadjar. A second off the leader was rookie Lindblad, with Mercedes and Audi placing both drivers in the top ten. Cadillac and Alpine were the slowest cars to run, with Norris having gearbox issues and the Aston obviously not being able to run as the drivers attempt to avoid an unstable car that risks nerve damage.

FP2 was the opposite, with the Mercedes teams leading the way with McLaren's home hero Piastri at the top followed by Mercedes's Antonelli and Russell both within 32 hundreths. Ferrari and Red Bull again placed both drivers in the top ten, and Lindblad, Ocon, and Piastri's teammate Norris all finishing in the category as well. Williams and Alpine were again slow, with Cadillac as the obvious slowest of the teams in competition and Aston again finishing dead last by over a second to the newest team to the grid (although both drivers were able to get more laps).

Podium Predictions

Here are my predictions for the podium finishers at the 2026 Australian Grand Prix:

Australian Grand Prix

1. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) - I think the most likely outcome for this race is that Max does his part for his championship hopes and wins this race. He has a good record and great memories in Abu Dhabi and has won the last two races.

   
   

2. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - Lando looks the faster of the two McLarens this weekend and topped the first two practice sessions. He must stand on the podium this weekend to absolutely guarantee his first championship, and it looks like he will take the title.

   
   

3. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - With Oscar Piastri way off the pace this weekend, it seems like we'll get a non-McLaren and non-Max car on the podium. Russell has looked very quick around Yas Marina so far.

Five Spicy Hot Takes

Now, let’s spice things up with some bold hot takes for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, rated from 1 to 5 spicy pepper emojis:

1. 🌶️ - Audi score points. This is much less of a hot take than if I had said this a couple of months ago, but it is still going to be a difficult task. But, with Aston and Cadillac practically out of the picture, I believe Audi can get a car in the top ten out of eighteen.

   
   

2. 🌶️🌶️ - Cadillac beat someone not named Aston Martin. On reflection, this may deserve to be a hotter take, but I feel like my third, fourth, and fifth takes are a bit more spicy. With that in mind, I do think reliability will play a huge role in this race, and if Cadillac can get a car over the line, odds are that they beat at least one driver not named Alonso or Stroll.

   
   

3. 🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Aston don't finish in the points...but they do finish half the race. Aston are having serious issues with their Honda power unit, but FP2 was encouraging that the drivers could potentially drive more laps during the Grand Prix. Assuming they qualify within the 107% rule, I see Alonso finishing 29 laps.

   
   

4. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Hadjar beats Verstappen. Verstappen has lost 32 times in a Grand Prix to his teammate. Hadjar crashed on the formation lap at last year's Australian Grand Prix. How, how, how could Hadjar possibly beat Verstappen. My answer is simple: Hadjar has the mindset Tsunoda and Lawson didn't coming into Red Bull, and is ready to win.

   
   

5. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Mercedes don't finish on the podium. For all of the hype surrounding Mercedes this winter, not seeing them on the podium would be a shock to the system. However, as I said earlier, I think that the top four teams (assuming reliability isn't an issue) are very, very close, and Leclerc, Piastri, and Verstappen have all shown incredible potential in addition to Russell and Antonelli.