Put down my money for Slot, but not the ones in Vegas

A month ago, anyone watching the Premier League that is not an Arsenal fan thought it would be a two-horse race between Manchester City and Liverpool for the title. They had just lost to Bournemouth and Newcastle away between a draw at the Emirates with Liverpool. 

But now everyone wonders if the title is decided only a day into December, six months before Matchday 38 and the end of the season. Manchester City have lost four consecutive Premier League matches for the first time in the Guardiola era. That’s as many titles as they’ve won in a row! Let’s first unpack the numbers behind the title challengers (Arsenal, Chelsea, etc.) before discussing City’s downfall and Liverpool’s dominance.

Arteta’s Arsenal emptyhanded again?

Arsenal have been in excellent form in their past couple of games, scoring ten goals in their past two matches against West Ham and Sporting and not having lost since November 6th to Inter in the Champions League. While they have been in good form and finishing their chances well, they appear far from Liverpool, potentially too far back. Despite being in second place, they are a whopping nine points behind leaders Liverpool. Arsenal are towards the top end of strength of schedule so far with their next being Brighton, Tottenham, or Aston Villa in January, but Liverpool aren’t far behind with their only true tests being Newcastle and Tottenham before a rematch with Forest in mid-January and an Etihad clash in late-Februrary. Arsenal dominated possession against Newcastle with 64% but only managed a single shot on target, losing 1-0. Even down to ten men against Bournemouth, they held the majority of possession and managed one shot on target, which again they could not convert in a 2-0 loss. Even in matches where they have been scoring loads of goals, they have allowed far too many shots on goal. At London Stadium this past Saturday, Arsenal held 60% of possession and allowed seven shots on goal, lucky that only two went in. The xG stats don’t help Arsenal’s case, as they underperformed their own xG against Chelsea, Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Southampton, all in the Premier League in the past two months. While the recent fix of form will give a spark of hope, it looks like Arsenal are not ready for a title this year.

Champions League Chelsea are back

Chelsea definitely don’t look like Premier Leauge champions, but this is a huge improvement from being clowned for a 12th place finish a couple of years ago. This Chelsea team looks very different and are playing well against other talented teams like Newcastle, Arsenal, and even Liverpool. While the game against Leicester was very close, Chelsea have looked strong against some of the contenders, like Aston Villa, and pretenders, like Wolves. A UCL finish is looking likely and I’m sure Chelsea fans are satisfied with the football they are playing, led by Cole Palmer (he’s not cold anymore) and a solid defense.

European Challengers

Things under Liverpool are close and even closer under Chelsea and Arsenal, so the European spots could be anybody’s after 13 matches. Brighton have been on a good run of form after finally spending some money this summer and must be happy even after some frustrating lost points against newly promoted sides. They should be back in Europe next season barring a complete collapse and may even challenge for that fourth Champions League position late into the season. Aston Villa have not looked the same since their UCL loss to Club Brugge and are on a long winless streak, but if we know anything about Emery’s Villa, they’ll get their form back soon and challenge for Europe and the top eight of the UCL. Newcastle, Brentford, and Amorim United are rising, while Forest and Leicester fall. Tottenham are back in their doctor role, defeating Manchester City twice and shredding Aston Villa but losing to Ipswich and Crystal Palace, both in the relegation zone. 

Rodri and De Bruyne absences hurting title aspirations

This entire spiral seems to have started with Rodri. The 2024 Ballon d'Or winner has been injured since he tore his ACL in September, leaving a gaping hole in Manchester City’s lineup. While Guardiola has identified targets to replace him in the January window, the problem will remain until then. City had an appropriate replacement for Kevin de Bruyne when he was injured, but now seem out of midfielders after putting in one substitute. Rico Lewis has not been enough to replace Rodri and City will need to find a way to either replace him or create some new tactics to halt the slide as soon as they can. In their four consecutive Premier League losses, City have held far above 50% of possession each time and have only had more shots on goal than their opponent once, when they had two more than Brighton in a 2-1 loss. 

Liverpool look the Real Madrid Deal

Liverpool are unstoppable. If you want to stop them, go talk to Nottingham Forest. If you don’t want to talk to them, you’re in trouble because Forest is the only team that has beaten them. Liverpool look like a perfect team, conquering Manchester City this weekend and drawing at the Emirates in October. Their schedule from here looks promising and they are not likely to drop many points over the next couple of months. The main concern for the rest of the league is whether or not they even drop the nine points they lead by over the rest of the season. With no team in Premier League history coming back from nine points after 13 games, City looking abysmal, and Arsenal and Chelsea not ready for a title challenge, who is going to stop them? City lead the league in xG, xGA, and expected points, along with holding that up with the second-most goals (second only to Tottenham), the least goals allowed, and the most points. The statistics back Liverpool and you’d be a fool not to as well.

The International Break was INSANE

Now that domestic football and other club football competitions are back in swing, let’s break down the November international break, which held some surprises and left us with some things to think about heading into 2025. 

Africa:

Would you believe me if I told you in February that Ghana, Cape Verde, and Libya would finish bottom of their AFCON qualification groups and that Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and The Gambia would also miss out? The AFCON qualifications were crazy, with some big takeaways from Matchdays 5 and 6. 

Will Ghana’s finishing sink them? Against Niger in Matchday 6, Ghana lost in what was a must-win game for their federation’s AFCON hopes. Ghana outplayed Niger in both possession and xG, but still lost 2-1, putting them in last place in what should have been a straightforward group for them. In Matchday 5, Ghana had trouble with possession issues going the other way, conceding far too many chances and not creating enough of their own. They were very lucky to take away a point from Sudan. 

Cape Verde have to be disappointed. One of football’s underdog stories was Cape Verde in the last AFCON. They escaped the group of death and made it all the way to the quarterfinals, only stopped by South Africa in a fight to the death. They found themselves in a group with Egypt once again, who played unstoppable football led by goal machine Trezeguet. The rest of the group should have been doable. Cape Verde lost both home and away to Botswana, who have only competed in one previous AFCON where they lost every single game. They also lost what could have been a qualification fight in Matchday 6 (if Botswana had lost to Egypt) 1-0 to Mauritania.

South America:

Things are much more straightforward here than in other continents, but the race for the bottom spots is opening up. Only a win separates Uruguay in second from Paraguay in sixth and Bolivia and Venezuela are in a race for the inter-continental playoff spot. 

Ecuador looked the best in the two matches they played over the break. They had a big win over Bolivia at home, although Bolivia don’t seem to adjust well to the altitude change, and were able to hold on for a 1-0 win despite a 34th minute red card. 

Colombia dropped all six points against Ecuador and Uruguay. Although both opposing sides are very strong, Colombia looked very controlling against Uruguay, but were unfortunate to give up so many corners, the own goal, and the stoppage time winner. Against Ecuador, they were a man up for over 55 minutes and should have been able to score, but again the finishing was not there despite possession being over twenty points in their favor.

Argentina still top the table by five points, almost guaranteeing they will be at the World Cup 2026 to defend their title. They definitely looked vulnerable in the loss away to Paraguay, but the possession domination is reassuring. Still, there will be questions regarding the golden generation.

Bolivia and Venezuela are neck-and-neck and likely will be until the end of qualification, with Bolivia currently ahead by one point. Their stadium is very hard to play in due to the altitude, so the dropped points at home to Paraguay will hurt after their demolition away in Ecuador. Venezuela started the campaign well but their ability to defeat top teams but lose to the worst ones is bewildering. 

Asia:

In Group A, Qatar are the biggest question mark. They made a statement against Uzbekistan, who have been on the rise and who many expected to win in Qatar. Qatar, the defending Asian champions, then went to Dubai and lost a whopping 5-0, allowing four (two penalties) to Fabio Lima. With Kyrgistan and North Korea almost certainly out of the automatic qualification race and Qatar fading as well, it is likely either Uzbekistan or UAE will make their debut at the World Cup.

In Group B, South Korea are dominating as expected, but things are much closer than expected. Iraq sit only three points behind South Korea, with Jordan trailing by another three. Oman, a debut hopeful, is closer to last place Kuwait than third place Jordan, but are still only three points behind Jordan. Nobody is truly out of the group yet, especially with both Palestine and Kuwait picking up points against the group favorites.

Finally, there’s Group C with a lot to unpack. Japan is the clearest. They can be the first team to qualify directly for the World Cup when they next play competitively, Matchday 7 against Bahrain. The rest of the group is unpredictable. Saudi Arabia and Australia were expected to fight for second place, but they are just as much in the pack as Bahrain, Indonesia, and China. Australia have to be the favorites as they tend to get out of tight situations to qualify for world cups, such as their inter-continental playoff penalty shootout win over Peru in the last edition. Their form was not promising over the international break, but they have to be happy that they were able to pick up points in both matches, especially against Saudi Arabia. China could also be considered favorites as they have already played Japan twice, meaning they have one less likely loss remaining on their schedule. China is known to choke in the big moments and have the worst goal difference (partially due to Japan slaughterings). Although Saudia Arabia and Australia remain the favorites, the point is that it’s anybody’s game to take that final automatic qualification spot, and nobody is truly the favorite because all five countries have proven that they can beat any of the others.

Europe:

The Nations League doesn’t really matter besides representing another trophy and half of the countries don’t even take it seriously, but there are some shout-outs to be made. 

Spain are seriously good. They were in a group with three other countries who made the World Cup in 2022 and the Euros in 2024, going unbeaten and topping the group, doubling everyone else’s points total. They are a big threat to win another trophy in this competition and you will want to avoid them in the World Cup qualifiers draw in December. 

Underdog stories were a theme throughout League B. Greece upset England at Wembley, Norway (who really shouldn’t be an underdog) topped a group with Austria and Slovenia, and although Albania and Georgia finished third and fourth, it was in a very tight group and both countries managed seven points.

In League C, the only shock was with Luxembourg, who only managed a measly draw against each other foe in their group. Northern Ireland came out of nowhere to top the group for automatic promotion to League B, and they impressed. 

Finally, League D, where San Marino won their first competitive match, their first away match, scored three goals in a match for the first time, scored multiple goals in a competitive match for the first time, and were promoted to League C automatically. La Serenissima are on their way up and may be able to sneak into the World Cup qualifying playoffs due to their promotion. It’s clear they are not the worst team in the world, but how far from that mark are they now?

The World Cup qualifying draw for UEFA is next month, and the Nations League has a big impact on seeding for that. The winner of each group has an advantage in terms of the UEFA playoffs, so we could even see a team like San Marino in the latter stages of qualification.

Oceania and North America:

Oceania held their World Cup qualifying second round or group stage, where the teams finished playing in their groups to arrange a semifinal. Group B went as expected, with New Zealand commanding the group and Tahiti coming second. Group A featured favorites Solomon Islands along with New Caledonia, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea. Many tipped the Solomon Islands to go to the inter-continental playoffs, but they ended up grouped after losing to Fiji is October before being mathematically eliminated after a loss to New Caledonia. New Zealand will play Fiji while New Caledonia take on Tahiti, with the winners of those ties assured of at least inter-continental playoffs. 

North America held their Nations League quarterfinals over the break, with the United States vs Jamaica showdown taking center stage. In new manager Pochettino’s first competitive matches, America was able to hold defensively in the first leg before an offensive explosion in the second, leading to a comfortable 5-2 win. Panama edged past Costa Rica for the second time in a row, this time a 3-2 showing, and will take on the US in a Copa America rematch. Canada and Mexico, the two most in-form CONCACAF sides, eased through their ties and will play each other in the semifinals next spring.

Another lost French football giant?

While the world shifts from club football to world cup and continental cup qualifiers during the international break, big news is being ignored in European club football. Lyon are in serious trouble and may even be relegated to Ligue 2 in the French Football System. 

Almost eleven months ago, Lyon were in danger of being relegated to Ligue 2. They sat bottom of Ligue 1 at 10 points in 15 matches, a whopping 26 points behind leaders PSG. Many people thought Lyon was a done deal after they shipped off Dembele, Barcola, Lukeba, and tons more talent in the summer transfer window. A coach carousel, scouting failure, and terrible negotiations in the past few years sunk Lyon from Champions League to non-Euopean caliber. Lyon have lost tons of money since their golden years and were even hesitant to part with multiple coaches last season despite both of them being unable to lift them out of rock bottom of the league. Lyon eventually hired a manager who took them out of the relegation zone last season and who has started the 24-25 season decently, but with continuous free transfers, money owned to players and coaches, and a lack of a recent cash injection from a multi-club ownership group, it seemed inevitable that sanctions would eventually arrive at OL Lyon. 

The French financial play regulators (DNCG) are known to be notoriously strict, and Lyon’s desolate financial situation finally triggered their sensors. They have not been give a points deduction but a provisional relegation, meaning that if they don’t get their financial situation under control, they will be relegated to Ligue 2, even if this time they don’t sit close to rock bottom. Lyon have reported acquiring over 500 million euros in debt, although that number could be greater if Lyon are hiding any debt from the public. Their American-based ownership group, which owns large stakes in both Crystal Palace and a currently successful Botafogo, is hoping to be able to close the gap through the other clubs’ revenue without selling any of Lyon’s biggest players.

However, the DNCG has placed a transfer sanction on Lyon, meaning that if they do choose to sell players, they will not be able to immediately replace them in the January transfer window until they are cleared. The question is if they are not able to raise money from the ownership group’s other clubs, how will they build up enough to present a stable financial situation to the DNCG. Their current squad value is around 240 million euros, which is a far cry from the 500+ million they currently have in debt. Their revenue from last season is over -100 million euros, meaning that they spent over 100 million euros more than they sold. 

If Lyon wants to avoid following the same fateful path as many of their former rivals, including Bordeaux, the team that broke their championship streak only 16 years ago, the American ownership group must get innovative to right the ship financially and find a way to redesign the club as one that generates young talent to sell for profit, not as one that buys expensive players from other clubs just for them to lose value by the time they are sold.