UEFA Champions League Draw Reaction: Madrid Magic, Bayern or Barce, Dutch Decimation

The UEFA knockout stage draws have just been made, so let’s take a deeper dive into the Champions League, paths and pick out the biggest storylines from each side, along with an overall trend. The Champions League playoff round produced utter chaos, but most of the top clubs still remain with only a few favorites out of the competition. Now, without further ado, here are the two biggest talking points from the draw, one for each side, and the trend behind one of the biggest disasters for a single domestic league in recent memory…

Silver Side - Derby Madrileño to produce Finalist?

By far, the tastiest tie on the Silver side of the draw is Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid. Usually, these two squads play intense, physical, fiery matches. This season, both fixtures have resulted in 1-1 results, but a year ago Atletico knocked Real out of the Copa del Rey, and Real has typically had the upper hand in European competitions. This season, Atletico are truly challenging Real’s title defence, and both have led La Liga for long stretches. Atletico have been on quite a run of form in the past month, and Real have seen an exponential uptick in quality of play since starting the season slowly. This has the formula to produce high-quality, entertaining football that may have the power to determine the champion of both the Champions League and La Liga. Meanwhile, Liverpool are likely to await in the semifinals so long as they can sneak past PSG and Villa or Brugge. The Reds have been by far the best team over the course of the season across Europe, but are beginning to slow down after a thunderous start under Arne Slot. They recently drew with Villa and Everton, lost to PSV and Tottenham, and tumbled out of the FA Cup to Plymouth Argyle. If one of the Madrid sides shows up to Anfield, we may have at least one Spanish side left in the competition in June.

Blue Side - 8-2! Will Messi’s biggest embarrassment be avenged?

It is looking increasingly likely that we will be gifted with yet another rematch between Bayern and Barce, with the latter taking all three points at home in October with a resounding 4-1 victory. Bayern, however, still have the mental advantage over Barcelona, with the Blaugrana not having defeated the Munich side in the knockouts since the 8-2 embarrassment in 2020. Messi is long gone, but Barcelona have begun to turn a corner after a disappointing 2023-24, largely helped by the presence of 17-year-old Spanish star Lamine Yamal. He has scored eleven and assisted fifteen despite missing a decent portion of the season, contributing to the uptick in form. Bayern still must hold off challengers Leverkusen in both the Bundesliga and Champions League but have not lost a domestic tie in over two months (Dec. 16 vs Mainz). Both teams should be confident and favored in their quarterfinal ties if they are to get there (although Inter is a tough test for Bayern), so expect a Barcelona vs Bayern Munich rematch. If Bayern win, we may see a rematch of last year’s Champions League semifinal, and if Barcelona win, we may see either the showdown between the top two teams in the League Phase or an all-La Liga affair.

Serie A or Serie 1? Dutch diminish Italian hopes

The playoff round was a disaster, and I mean a DISASTER, for the Italians and Serie A. Despite losing Bologna in the League Phase, the Serie A was still very much in the race for five spots in next year’s elite European club competition and had many clubs still in contention for the Champions League title. Then, everything went wrong. First, reigning Europa League champions and Serie A title contenders lost both legs of their tie to Belgian champions Club Brugge. Then, AC Milan were reduced to ten men before allowing an equalizer to Feyenoord that knocked them out of the Champions League. Finally, Juventus, who went into Eindhoven with a 2-1 lead, allowed two second-half goals and an extra time winner to succumb to PSV. Atalanta haven’t looked themselves since their draw with Barcelona in Matchday 8, partially due to Ademola Lookman’s slump. AC Milan have turned their fortunes domestically but had two red cards in three matches prior to crashing out of the competition. Juventus came into Europe with high expectations courtesy of an unbeaten record in the Serie A before losing two of their next four games not in the domestic league, coupled with a disappointing 0-0 draw with Brugge on Matchday 8. These misfortunes can be explained, but the fact that they all happened simultaneously is extremely interesting. All of the clubs had been very successful in the Serie A, in which Lazio, Inter, Roma, and Fiorentina, all still in their respective UEFA competition, reside. Inter will hope to carry the Serie A as the last remaining Champions League side, though a run isn’t out of the question for the finalists twice removed.

Half-way ACC Power Rankings

We’re about halfway through conference play in the 2024-25 men’s college basketball, season, so it’s time to rank the eighteen members of the Atlantic Coast Conference. The conference has been extremely weak this year, with only one member ranked in the AP Poll and two in the top 25 of ESPN’s BPI ratings. I’m going to separate these rankings into four tiers, as I believe there are four distinct categories of ACC squads. Without further ado, here are your ACC squads ranked from worst to first…

They’re, uh…rebuilding

18: Miami Hurricanes

How did this happen? In March 2023, the Miami Hurricanes had just beaten #2 Texas (fifth in the country) in the Elite Eight to reach the Final Four, yes the Final Four, of the NCAA Tournament. That offseason, they lost their two best players to the NBA Draft, and their offense suffered. They started 2023-24 with an 11-2 record before stumbling to 14th in the ACC and bowing out to Boston College in the first round of the conference tournament. This season, Miami lost their longtime coach Jim Larrañga, went 4-7 with a weak non-conference schedule, and are 1-10 in ACC Play, earning their first win over Notre Dame this past weekend. Miami look far from their March Madness run and have a good chance of being the first team to miss the ACC tournament in history by the end of February. 

17: Boston College Eagles

Boston College also pulled out a must-needed win this past weekend as they beat Florida State at the buzzer. However, it hasn’t been easy this season. The Eagles haven’t finished high enough to earn a bye past the first round of the ACC Tournament since the league expanded in 2013, and don’t look to be making much progress towards finishing above tenth. They sit at 2-8 in conference play, and other than their win at home this past weekend, their only victory was a huge comeback against last-placed Miami in Chestnut Hill. Expect to see the Eagles here for a while.

16: Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia is a similar story to Miami. How did this happen? Virginia was the number one seed in the ACC Tournament only two years ago, won the national championship six years ago, and are now at the gutter of the ACC. Virginia have only beaten NCST, Boston College, and Miami, the three teams with a worse record in conference play, and are 3-8 despite the only top team they have played is Louisville. Virginia would be 15th, but they play Pitt, Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, and Clemson before the end of the season. I wouldn’t expect them to be playing in Charlotte with that gauntlet.

15: North Carolina State Wolfpack

Another ACC team that shouldn’t be here. NCST wasn’t anything special last year, finishing tenth in the regular season. However, their cinderella run through the ACC Tournament and to the Final Four gave just a little bit of hope for a non-dismal season. Instead, the Wolfpack have been worse. They’re 2-8 in conference play and have lost six in a row. If you’re looking for another surprise package from the ACC, find somebody else.

14: Syracuse Orange

Syracuse looked far better earlier in the season, with close losses to Texas, Texas Tech, and Georgetown. Since beginning conference play, the Orange have lost to Florida State by 16 and Stanford by 9. Good news: most of the difficult opponents have already been played, with only Duke, UNC, and another showdown with Pitt remaining from the top of the conference. They should rise soon.

13: Florida State Seminoles

It’s been a bad couple of weeks for the Seminoles. Since a quality win over Georgia Tech, Florida State was swept on their trip to the West before an ugly loss to Virginia Tech and a heartbreaker in Chestnut Hill. The schedule doesn’t get much easier, with Duke, Louisville, UNC, Clemson, and Wake Forest still remaining. Florida State should make the ACC Tournament and they’ll definitely try to make a quarterfinal run, but may be exhausted from the conference schedule leading up to March.

Stumbling to the ACC Tourney

12: California Golden Bears

From looking through the ACC teams’ results so far, it is clear that the top twelve are far better than the bottom six. It is very hard to rank the teams that I have between ninth and twelfth. Cal has had much more of a home-court advantage than in the past, but that also comes with a deficit on the road. Teams have typically traveled to Stanford first before making the trek up to Berkeley, and the Golden Bears have capitalized, winning three conference games at home. However, Cal hasn’t played well against the top teams in the conference and still have dates against Wake Forest, Duke, and Louisville. 

11: Virginia Tech Hokies

The Hokies are ninth in the conference and 5-6 but are in worse shape than the two teams directly above them. VTech won in Tallahassee and Charlottesville this past week to improve their conference record, but almost blew their lead against Virginia. Their other three conference wins were also lackluster and against teams below them. They have also been blown out by the majority of top conference opponents they have played. The next three weeks will be a big opportunity for Virginia Tech to secure a safe record before potential season-defining clashes against Louisville, UNC, and Clemson to finish conference play.

10: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Fighting Irish have been solid over the course of the season, posting strong wins against Syracuse and Boston College and a close loss to Duke. However, the loss to Miami this past weekend was disastrous, as Notre Dame blew an 11-point halftime lead to surrender the Hurricanes’ first conference victory of the season. Notre Dame have four chances to improve their resume in February in the hopes of better seeding in the ACC Tournament. Hopefully the Miami loss was a one-off for the Fighting Irish.

9: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech have themselves in the top half of the conference for the time being after a huge win over Louisville in Atlanta this past weekend. It was their first AP Poll win this year and solidified that the Yellow Jackets are one of the league’s top home-court teams. However, Georgia Tech will have to step it up on the road, as they have visits to struggling Boston College and Virginia over the next few weeks and a chance to secure a bye in the ACC Tournament.

Blink and your Bid’s Stolen

8: Pittsburgh Panthers

Welcome to the true contender list of the ACC, as the top eight teams have firmly separated themselves from the rest of the pack. Pitt were able to take down UNC at home a few weeks ago but are still searching for a high-quality win. UNC hasn’t been playing as well as they have in past seasons, and the Panthers have squandered big chances against Louisville, Clemson, and Wake Forest. They don’t have many left, and likely need to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill and take out Louisville in Kentucky to be in the bubble conversation.

7: North Carolina Tar Heels

As a Duke fan, all I can say is WOW! North Carolina lack a lot of the size that helped them to a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament last year and sit at a measly 6-5 in conference play. They began ACC play strong (4-1) but are missing the same thing as Pittsburgh, a high-quality win. The Tar Heels lost to Louisville, Pitt, Wake Forest, and of course Duke, and need to start winning more games. They host Pitt before traveling to Clemson and in March host Duke in what could be the biggest game of the season for UNC.

6: Southern Methodist Mustangs

SMU really haven’t played many strong teams in the ACC. Yes, they’ve absolutely demolished some of the weaker teams in the conference, such as scoring 117 points against Miami or 103 against Boston College, but they also couldn’t compete with Duke, UNC, or Louisville. They have some great chances to redeem themselves and prove their record is no fluke against Pitt, Wake Forest, and Clemson, but also must be careful to not lose any games they aren’t supposed to.

5: Stanford Cardinal

Stanford have had a nice introduction to the ACC in men’s basketball. They sit at 7-4 and have really benefited from hosting teams from the East still adjusting to the new time zone. Stanford are 6-0 against ACC opponents in California but 1-4 elsewhere. They also haven’t proven their record is secure as they have lost to Wake Forest, Pitt, and Clemson with only a win against North Carolina. They host Wake and SMU and will hope to cause upsets in those challenges, and must improve their away form if they hope to stand a chance against Louisville and Duke when they travel to the East.

Putting the Madness in March

4: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The top four teams in this list are all super strong compared to the rest of the conference, and the teams ranked from second to fourth are almost inseparable at the moment. Wake have notched wins against almost every team in the conference except against the teams above them: Louisville, Clemson, and Duke. They had an excellent performance in Cameron against the Blue Devils and their largest conference loss of the season was in Louisville by thirteen. The Demon Deacons look as though they belong at the top of the conference and should be entertaining to watch when they host Duke in early March. They’ll be heavily favored in every game until then so it is a big chance to notch a huge win.

3: Louisville Cardinals

What an improvement from the Cardinals! Just last March, Louisville were dominated in the first round of the ACC Tournament, ending the season 8-24 (3-17) as the worst team in the conference. They came close against Kentucky and Oklahoma but beat Indiana and giant-topplers West Virginia in non-con play. Since then, they fought to a close loss against Duke, beat Wake Forest, Pitt, and Clemson, and dominated the conference. It is likely their ugly loss in Atlanta was just a fluke, but it is something to monitor over the next month. Quite the improvement though! It’ll be interesting to see how they handle the ACC Tournament after a relatively quiet end to the conference schedule.

2: Clemson Tigers:

This team is different from the two before it. Clemson have March Madness experience, as they almost reached the Final Four last year and established themselves as a strong basketball program. This year, the Tigers are the only team in the conference that can come close to matching Duke’s non-conference resume, as they notched impressive victories over San Francisco, Penn. State, and of course Kentucky, along with two close losses to Memphis and South Carolina. Their only conference loss was in Louisville and the only time they have really looked troubled in conference play was in their overtime victory over Pitt. Their remaining schedule isn’t super troubling, but they are the only top ACC team that hasn’t played Duke and still have to make sure to put North Carolina away at home.

National Championship back in the ACC?

1: Duke Blue Devils

While the ACC hasn’t been itself over the past few years as other conferences have dominated, Duke has been a constant for the conference this season. They have been the only consistent AP Poll squad and haven’t left the top ten all season. The Blue Devils have recovered from close losses to Kansas and Kentucky early in the season and have definitely matured. We’ll see if Duke enters the NCAA Tournament tested enough to make a run since the ACC is so weak this year. They appear to be unstoppable in conference play and their battles with Clemson, Wake Forest, and UNC will be good chances to show they are ready for March (they also play Illinois at MSG in late February). Being the only team to take out the top team nationally doesn’t hurt their standing.

Australian Open Quarterfinal Power Ranking

The 2025 Australian Open has been super interesting thus far, and despite many seeded players making the later stages of the tournament, tons of history has been made. From the NextGen ATP Finals trend, in which six of the eight players qualified for the main draw, five notched at least one win, and four notched top-15 victories. Novak Djokovic has had a resurgence after not winning a single title last year (except for the Olympic Gold Medal), recovering from a shaky first two rounds to dominate a pair of seeded Czechs in straight sets. Sinner has battled through illness and a doping case while Alcaraz has cruised, two Americans remain in the last eight men, and an unseeded Italian continues to wage war against the seeds.

On the Women’s side, all unseeded players have been eliminated, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been upsets. Belinda Bencic and Naomi Osaka, both of whom were unseeded and recently returned from maternity leave, battled in the third round, and Bencic almost went on to upset Gauff. Five of the top ten players have gone down to players outside the top 15. While Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Gauff have soared, Svitolina has had a resurgence and Lys won three more matches than she thought she would.

Now, with only 16 total players remaining in the singles draws, let’s rank them based on how they’ve performed and how likely they are to win the championship.

16: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Pavlyuchenkova is not by any means the weakest player remaining, but she is playing the defending champion, who could currently be the hottest player in the world. Pavlyuchenkova is third out of the final eight in aces, but she has served up 12 double faults in just four matches. Vekic had FIVE break points against her, only one less than Pavlyuchenkova, but was unlucky to convert none of them. She gave up three break points to Siegemund and 11 to Popatova, who converted on SEVEN breaks. While she has been back to form and will return to the top 25, her chances at getting past Sabalenka, Gauff, and Swiatek in a row are way too low to put her higher.

15: Lorenzo Sonego

It’s been a great run for Sonego, but he can’t win this tournament. He hasn’t made things easy for himself, dropping at least set in each match and playing only unseeded players. He ended the runs of two super hot NextGen talents, but both were exhausted and Fonseca took him to five. He has hit 59 aces, the most among remaining players, but has also hit 14 double faults, the third most. He has been clinical on points where he made his first serve but has only won the sixth most points on return out of remaining players. Sonego is clearly returning to form and may be firmly established as a seed by the end of this, with beating Ben Shelton a possibility, but he’s just not good enough to beat any of the top players in Melbourne.

14: Emma Navarro

This one is very interesting, as Navarro was my pick to reach the final in Melbourne before the tournament started. Now I don’t see any way she can win or even make the final. If Navarro made the semifinals, she would either have Svitolina or Keys, who I believe she could defeat. However, Swiatek has looked unstoppable and Navarro will have to run out of stamina at some point. Navarro has needed three close sets to close out all four of her first week victories, and although she’s one of the fittest players on the tour, she only has a limited amount of tennis in her before her body gives out. Swiatek has barely had any time on court, winning her last two matches 6-0 6-1, including a third-round victory over former US Open champion Raducanu, and losing just 12 games. If Navarro gets past Swiatek, I would assume she could win the tournament, but the Pole has looked unstoppable.

13: Tommy Paul

The No. 2 American and future top-10 player has had strong showings since his first-round scare by hometown hero O’Connel. After surviving the marathon match, Paul dispatched Nishikori in four sets and has won nine straight sets. Paul is playing his best tennis and is hoping to equal his best result at a major: a semifinal appearance in Melbourne two years ago. However, the strong-serving Zverev stands in his way, determined to bring home his first major after coming close multiple times at grand slams in 2024. Paul will have to be at his best, placing accurate shots and moving Sascha around the court. If I were him, I would call up the only American ranked higher than him, Taylor Fritz, who mastered the art of defeating the World No. 2 in the back half of 2024. If Paul can get past Zverev, he will likely face Alcaraz or Djokovic before a questionable Sinner in the final. 

12: Elina Svitolina

The Ukrainian defeated her ninth Russian opponent in a row in the Round of 16 and will now try to reach her first career Australian Open semifinal. Svitolina has largely cruised through the first four rounds with the exception of her battle against World No. 4 Jasmine Paolini, who she beat 6-0 in the third set. However, she is still a questionable pick due to her terrible injury in the second half of the 2024 season, and her ankle could still become a problem at any moment. She faces a tough opponent in Keys, who also has experience battling through tough battles deep into majors. This game is a toss-up, but I don’t think Svitolina is good enough to potentially defeat Swiatek in the semis and Gauff or Sabalenka in the final.

11: Alex de Minaur

As a de Minaur fan, this one hurts. He has finally reached his goal of a quarterfinal in front of his home fans after heartbreak in the past three years, and as a reward he will face the World No. 1 Jannik Sinner. Sinner has never lost to de Minaur, and the Aussie has only managed to take a single set in one of their nine outings. On any good day, Sinner should be able to cakewalk, but this aren’t normal circumstances. In his Round of 16 match against Holger Rune, Sinner became overheated and seemed to be suffering from an illness. In front of his home crowd with Sinner not at his best, this may be de Minaur’s best chance to defeat the Italian and reach a maiden grand slam semifinal with his nation on his back. However, despite all of my de Minaur hope and hype, his odds of a win are not great. Demon has served terribly, with under 50% of his first serves going in and double faults galore, and the title is still out of reach at the moment.

10: Paula Badosa

Badosa is stronger than a few of the players above her, but her draw is brutal. Tonight she will play Gauff, who hasn’t lost a match since before the WTA Finals in the beginning of November. If she survives, she plays World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion. Then, if she somehow wins that, she likely faces No. 2 Iga Swiatek, who is hungrier than ever to win the title in Melbourne. No stats are needed, that path demonstrates things just fine.

9: Madison Keys

Keys has plenty of experience with deep runs at majors, and almost defeated Sabalenka at the US Open semifinals in 2023. She is hoping to reach her seventh major semifinal and will be the favorite when she lines up across the court from Svitolina. Her serve speed is second among quarterfinalist only behind Gauff, she has a high 72% first serve percentage, and she has pounced on opponents’ second serves. However, she is not at the level of Swiatek, Gauff, and Sabalenka at the moment, and if she defeats Svitolina her run will likely end there. 

8: Ben Shelton

Shelton has potentially drawn gold on his path to the final. His section of the draw has been pretty simple so far, and his only real challenge was Musetti, who he overcame pretty easily. Shelton’s serve has only gotten better, and he has served 47 aces and is fourth in serve speed to prove it. This ranking truly only depends on Jannik Sinner. If Sinner is indeed questionable and not at his best, either de Minaur or Shelton may end up taking advantage to advance to the final. If not, Shelton is likely doomed due to Sinner’s talent and form on the hard courts. 

7: Novak Djokovic

The top 7 are a different level than the rest, and that is demonstrated simply by the fact that the ten-time champion is all the way down here. Djokovic has not been himself over the past twelve months, and hasn’t won a tournament since 2023 (except for the Olympics of course). In the first two rounds, Djokovic stumbled to victories over weak opponents, but then diverted course to take out two seeded Czechs in the third and fourth rounds. Now Djokovic faces a familiar foe in Carlos Alcaraz, who will almost certainly want revenge for the Olympic final. If Nole can get past Carlitos, he will likely face Sascha, who I would favor him against, and Sinner, who I don’t believe Djokovic can beat. As I said, any of these top 7 can win the whole thing, so Djokovic is certainly in the conversation.

6: Alexander Zverev

Sascha is still hunting for that elusive first major and has a good chance of winning it here in Melbourne. He has breezed through what was arguably the easiest draw of any top player and should defeat Tommy Paul in the quarters, whether he takes the easy or hard way out. Sascha may then face Alcaraz, who he played in last year’s quarterfinals and the final at Roland Garros, and a potentially sick Sinner. Zverev definitely has the tools to end the drought, but his serve hasn’t been perfectly on point, which he’ll need to fix if he wants any chance at defeating his fellow top players. 

5: Iga Swiatek

Swiatek is so, so, so talented and is so hot at the moment but I don’t fancy her against the players above her. Swiatek has been dominant so far in her run through the tournament and hasn’t dropped a set (she’s only dropped twelve games). She defeated US Open Champion Emma Raducanu 6-0 6-1 and then beat Eva Lys by the same scoreline to set up a clash with Navarro. Swiatek should be able to reach the final due to her advantage in time on court (her matches have been far shorter than Navarro’s) and will set up a tasty matchup with Sabalenka or Gauf (or Badosa or Pavlyuchenkova I guess). This isn’t Swiatek’s main surface and she tends to be weaker than her two rivals on the surface, so I’ll back her to be a finalist.

4: Carlos Alcaraz

You can tell just how tight this list is when Carlos Alcaraz, yes the four time major champion, is fourth. Carlos has yet to take home the title in Melbourne and is going for the youngest career slam in tennis history. He has a tough battle with Novak, who knows him very well, in the quarters. He then is likely to face Zverev and Sinner to end the tournament, which is no easy pair of victories. Alcaraz will have to be extremely resilient and minimize his time on court if he wants to win the title, as Sinner and Zverev are both excellent hard-court players and this is Carlos’s weakest surface. I definitely wouldn’t be shocked at all if he won the title though.

3: Coco Gauff

Just when you think this list can’t get any crazier, you see the talented American at number three, two spots below where you think she should go. Just like with Alcaraz, I honestly have as much faith in her winning than not winning at this point, and the top of this list is really, really hard to make. The only thing that keeps Gauff below the two above her is that she hasn’t proven herself in Melbourne yet. She won the US Open in 2023 and is on a tear since November but hasn’t won this title twice in a row.

2: Jannik Sinner

If he wasn’t sick, dizzy, or whatever happened to him against Rune on Monday night, I would put Sinner at number one. Sinner is already guaranteed to keep his No. 1 ranking even if he were to lose to de Minaur in the quarters, but the doping scandal still looms over every match he plays. He has been gifted a simple path to the final, although de Minaur will test his lung power, and if healthy will be favored over whoever reaches the championship from the bloodbath on the other side. Sinner showed just how good he can be even when illness impeded him, defeating the young and very talented Dane. If Sinner ends up being healthy, there’s likely no stopping him; every metric points towards him.

1: Aryna Sabalenka

At the moment, Sabalenka looks like she has been the best and has the best chance of a title. She has quietly taken care of business in each of the first four rounds in just two sets and destroyed fourteenth-ranked Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2. Sabalenka shouldn’t have much trouble with Pavlyuchenkova despite having the disadvantage in head-to-head, and her showdown with Gauff will be huge. Coco’s serve is incredible, and she leads the tournament in aces and first serve speed, but Sabalenka is a master at returns and should be able to upset Gauff’s rhythm. I expect Sabalenka to take care of business in an uneventful final victory over Swiatek, but this is a toss-up.