Put down my money for Slot, but not the ones in Vegas

A month ago, anyone watching the Premier League that is not an Arsenal fan thought it would be a two-horse race between Manchester City and Liverpool for the title. They had just lost to Bournemouth and Newcastle away between a draw at the Emirates with Liverpool. 

But now everyone wonders if the title is decided only a day into December, six months before Matchday 38 and the end of the season. Manchester City have lost four consecutive Premier League matches for the first time in the Guardiola era. That’s as many titles as they’ve won in a row! Let’s first unpack the numbers behind the title challengers (Arsenal, Chelsea, etc.) before discussing City’s downfall and Liverpool’s dominance.

Arteta’s Arsenal emptyhanded again?

Arsenal have been in excellent form in their past couple of games, scoring ten goals in their past two matches against West Ham and Sporting and not having lost since November 6th to Inter in the Champions League. While they have been in good form and finishing their chances well, they appear far from Liverpool, potentially too far back. Despite being in second place, they are a whopping nine points behind leaders Liverpool. Arsenal are towards the top end of strength of schedule so far with their next being Brighton, Tottenham, or Aston Villa in January, but Liverpool aren’t far behind with their only true tests being Newcastle and Tottenham before a rematch with Forest in mid-January and an Etihad clash in late-Februrary. Arsenal dominated possession against Newcastle with 64% but only managed a single shot on target, losing 1-0. Even down to ten men against Bournemouth, they held the majority of possession and managed one shot on target, which again they could not convert in a 2-0 loss. Even in matches where they have been scoring loads of goals, they have allowed far too many shots on goal. At London Stadium this past Saturday, Arsenal held 60% of possession and allowed seven shots on goal, lucky that only two went in. The xG stats don’t help Arsenal’s case, as they underperformed their own xG against Chelsea, Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Southampton, all in the Premier League in the past two months. While the recent fix of form will give a spark of hope, it looks like Arsenal are not ready for a title this year.

Champions League Chelsea are back

Chelsea definitely don’t look like Premier Leauge champions, but this is a huge improvement from being clowned for a 12th place finish a couple of years ago. This Chelsea team looks very different and are playing well against other talented teams like Newcastle, Arsenal, and even Liverpool. While the game against Leicester was very close, Chelsea have looked strong against some of the contenders, like Aston Villa, and pretenders, like Wolves. A UCL finish is looking likely and I’m sure Chelsea fans are satisfied with the football they are playing, led by Cole Palmer (he’s not cold anymore) and a solid defense.

European Challengers

Things under Liverpool are close and even closer under Chelsea and Arsenal, so the European spots could be anybody’s after 13 matches. Brighton have been on a good run of form after finally spending some money this summer and must be happy even after some frustrating lost points against newly promoted sides. They should be back in Europe next season barring a complete collapse and may even challenge for that fourth Champions League position late into the season. Aston Villa have not looked the same since their UCL loss to Club Brugge and are on a long winless streak, but if we know anything about Emery’s Villa, they’ll get their form back soon and challenge for Europe and the top eight of the UCL. Newcastle, Brentford, and Amorim United are rising, while Forest and Leicester fall. Tottenham are back in their doctor role, defeating Manchester City twice and shredding Aston Villa but losing to Ipswich and Crystal Palace, both in the relegation zone. 

Rodri and De Bruyne absences hurting title aspirations

This entire spiral seems to have started with Rodri. The 2024 Ballon d'Or winner has been injured since he tore his ACL in September, leaving a gaping hole in Manchester City’s lineup. While Guardiola has identified targets to replace him in the January window, the problem will remain until then. City had an appropriate replacement for Kevin de Bruyne when he was injured, but now seem out of midfielders after putting in one substitute. Rico Lewis has not been enough to replace Rodri and City will need to find a way to either replace him or create some new tactics to halt the slide as soon as they can. In their four consecutive Premier League losses, City have held far above 50% of possession each time and have only had more shots on goal than their opponent once, when they had two more than Brighton in a 2-1 loss. 

Liverpool look the Real Madrid Deal

Liverpool are unstoppable. If you want to stop them, go talk to Nottingham Forest. If you don’t want to talk to them, you’re in trouble because Forest is the only team that has beaten them. Liverpool look like a perfect team, conquering Manchester City this weekend and drawing at the Emirates in October. Their schedule from here looks promising and they are not likely to drop many points over the next couple of months. The main concern for the rest of the league is whether or not they even drop the nine points they lead by over the rest of the season. With no team in Premier League history coming back from nine points after 13 games, City looking abysmal, and Arsenal and Chelsea not ready for a title challenge, who is going to stop them? City lead the league in xG, xGA, and expected points, along with holding that up with the second-most goals (second only to Tottenham), the least goals allowed, and the most points. The statistics back Liverpool and you’d be a fool not to as well.