The International Break was INSANE

Now that domestic football and other club football competitions are back in swing, let’s break down the November international break, which held some surprises and left us with some things to think about heading into 2025. 

Africa:

Would you believe me if I told you in February that Ghana, Cape Verde, and Libya would finish bottom of their AFCON qualification groups and that Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and The Gambia would also miss out? The AFCON qualifications were crazy, with some big takeaways from Matchdays 5 and 6. 

Will Ghana’s finishing sink them? Against Niger in Matchday 6, Ghana lost in what was a must-win game for their federation’s AFCON hopes. Ghana outplayed Niger in both possession and xG, but still lost 2-1, putting them in last place in what should have been a straightforward group for them. In Matchday 5, Ghana had trouble with possession issues going the other way, conceding far too many chances and not creating enough of their own. They were very lucky to take away a point from Sudan. 

Cape Verde have to be disappointed. One of football’s underdog stories was Cape Verde in the last AFCON. They escaped the group of death and made it all the way to the quarterfinals, only stopped by South Africa in a fight to the death. They found themselves in a group with Egypt once again, who played unstoppable football led by goal machine Trezeguet. The rest of the group should have been doable. Cape Verde lost both home and away to Botswana, who have only competed in one previous AFCON where they lost every single game. They also lost what could have been a qualification fight in Matchday 6 (if Botswana had lost to Egypt) 1-0 to Mauritania.

South America:

Things are much more straightforward here than in other continents, but the race for the bottom spots is opening up. Only a win separates Uruguay in second from Paraguay in sixth and Bolivia and Venezuela are in a race for the inter-continental playoff spot. 

Ecuador looked the best in the two matches they played over the break. They had a big win over Bolivia at home, although Bolivia don’t seem to adjust well to the altitude change, and were able to hold on for a 1-0 win despite a 34th minute red card. 

Colombia dropped all six points against Ecuador and Uruguay. Although both opposing sides are very strong, Colombia looked very controlling against Uruguay, but were unfortunate to give up so many corners, the own goal, and the stoppage time winner. Against Ecuador, they were a man up for over 55 minutes and should have been able to score, but again the finishing was not there despite possession being over twenty points in their favor.

Argentina still top the table by five points, almost guaranteeing they will be at the World Cup 2026 to defend their title. They definitely looked vulnerable in the loss away to Paraguay, but the possession domination is reassuring. Still, there will be questions regarding the golden generation.

Bolivia and Venezuela are neck-and-neck and likely will be until the end of qualification, with Bolivia currently ahead by one point. Their stadium is very hard to play in due to the altitude, so the dropped points at home to Paraguay will hurt after their demolition away in Ecuador. Venezuela started the campaign well but their ability to defeat top teams but lose to the worst ones is bewildering. 

Asia:

In Group A, Qatar are the biggest question mark. They made a statement against Uzbekistan, who have been on the rise and who many expected to win in Qatar. Qatar, the defending Asian champions, then went to Dubai and lost a whopping 5-0, allowing four (two penalties) to Fabio Lima. With Kyrgistan and North Korea almost certainly out of the automatic qualification race and Qatar fading as well, it is likely either Uzbekistan or UAE will make their debut at the World Cup.

In Group B, South Korea are dominating as expected, but things are much closer than expected. Iraq sit only three points behind South Korea, with Jordan trailing by another three. Oman, a debut hopeful, is closer to last place Kuwait than third place Jordan, but are still only three points behind Jordan. Nobody is truly out of the group yet, especially with both Palestine and Kuwait picking up points against the group favorites.

Finally, there’s Group C with a lot to unpack. Japan is the clearest. They can be the first team to qualify directly for the World Cup when they next play competitively, Matchday 7 against Bahrain. The rest of the group is unpredictable. Saudi Arabia and Australia were expected to fight for second place, but they are just as much in the pack as Bahrain, Indonesia, and China. Australia have to be the favorites as they tend to get out of tight situations to qualify for world cups, such as their inter-continental playoff penalty shootout win over Peru in the last edition. Their form was not promising over the international break, but they have to be happy that they were able to pick up points in both matches, especially against Saudi Arabia. China could also be considered favorites as they have already played Japan twice, meaning they have one less likely loss remaining on their schedule. China is known to choke in the big moments and have the worst goal difference (partially due to Japan slaughterings). Although Saudia Arabia and Australia remain the favorites, the point is that it’s anybody’s game to take that final automatic qualification spot, and nobody is truly the favorite because all five countries have proven that they can beat any of the others.

Europe:

The Nations League doesn’t really matter besides representing another trophy and half of the countries don’t even take it seriously, but there are some shout-outs to be made. 

Spain are seriously good. They were in a group with three other countries who made the World Cup in 2022 and the Euros in 2024, going unbeaten and topping the group, doubling everyone else’s points total. They are a big threat to win another trophy in this competition and you will want to avoid them in the World Cup qualifiers draw in December. 

Underdog stories were a theme throughout League B. Greece upset England at Wembley, Norway (who really shouldn’t be an underdog) topped a group with Austria and Slovenia, and although Albania and Georgia finished third and fourth, it was in a very tight group and both countries managed seven points.

In League C, the only shock was with Luxembourg, who only managed a measly draw against each other foe in their group. Northern Ireland came out of nowhere to top the group for automatic promotion to League B, and they impressed. 

Finally, League D, where San Marino won their first competitive match, their first away match, scored three goals in a match for the first time, scored multiple goals in a competitive match for the first time, and were promoted to League C automatically. La Serenissima are on their way up and may be able to sneak into the World Cup qualifying playoffs due to their promotion. It’s clear they are not the worst team in the world, but how far from that mark are they now?

The World Cup qualifying draw for UEFA is next month, and the Nations League has a big impact on seeding for that. The winner of each group has an advantage in terms of the UEFA playoffs, so we could even see a team like San Marino in the latter stages of qualification.

Oceania and North America:

Oceania held their World Cup qualifying second round or group stage, where the teams finished playing in their groups to arrange a semifinal. Group B went as expected, with New Zealand commanding the group and Tahiti coming second. Group A featured favorites Solomon Islands along with New Caledonia, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea. Many tipped the Solomon Islands to go to the inter-continental playoffs, but they ended up grouped after losing to Fiji is October before being mathematically eliminated after a loss to New Caledonia. New Zealand will play Fiji while New Caledonia take on Tahiti, with the winners of those ties assured of at least inter-continental playoffs. 

North America held their Nations League quarterfinals over the break, with the United States vs Jamaica showdown taking center stage. In new manager Pochettino’s first competitive matches, America was able to hold defensively in the first leg before an offensive explosion in the second, leading to a comfortable 5-2 win. Panama edged past Costa Rica for the second time in a row, this time a 3-2 showing, and will take on the US in a Copa America rematch. Canada and Mexico, the two most in-form CONCACAF sides, eased through their ties and will play each other in the semifinals next spring.