What if...The Australian Outback

The Decision

Survivor: The Australian Outback is very different to analyze than Survivor: Borneo. While Borneo had minimal strategy, only one alliance, and a long immunity run that led to the outcome not being changed, The Australian Outback had more concrete relationships and people had an idea of what to expect. To give an example, there were only a couple of unanimous vote-outs in Borneo, but in Australia, the first two votes were both 7-1. The Australian Outback was also the first season to feature a countback, and there are two to choose from. For me, this double-tie situation is fascinating, and the countback rule was only a part of the show for a few seasons. Considering this, the new question is which countback to switch and to what. I think that the Keith-Mitchell tie is far too early to reverse, and the much more meaningful tie is between Varner and Colby at the final ten. So, what if...we use a modern rock draw instead of the countback at the final ten of the Australian Outback?

The Outcome

So what would have happened? After the revote, we simulate the rock draw between the eight without votes since they can't come to a unanimous decision:

Jerri --> White

and in the first tribal council rock draw, Jerri goes home, leaving an alliance of five against an alliance of four. This also means that we already have more voting changes in our twisted version of The Australian Outback than in the entire of Borneo, and expect a lot more to change. The second episode of the post-merge, or episode eight, begins and the Ogakor-Kucha divide is still strong, with Kucha having the numbers. Amber wins reward and likely brings Elisabeth with her to try to grasp on to any footing with her tribe down in the numbers. Keith still wins immunity, meaning Amber, Colby, and Tina are most likely to go as they are in the minority alliance. Colby is by far the biggest physical and strategic threat of those who are left:

Varner --> Colby

Tina --> Nick

Colby --> Nick

Amber --> Nick

Elisabeth --> Colby

Rodger --> Colby

Nick --> Colby

Alecia --> Colby

Keith --> Nick

and America's man goes home at the final nine, leaving Kucha with a 5-3 majority. In episode ten, the Kuchas finally have the numbers to ponder taking out one of their own, and Elisabeth wins reward and takes Rodger from her alliance. Nick clutches up immunity to ensure he isn't a target for a Kucha flip, and the targets are either Keith for finally not having immunity or Alecia for being a huge physical threat:

Varner --> Keith

Tina --> Alecia

Amber --> Alecia

Elisabeth --> Keith

Rodger --> Keith

Nick --> Keith

Alecia --> Keith

Keith --> Alecia

sending Keith home in a 5-3 vote and giving Kucha a huge 5-2 advantage heading into episode eleven. The survivors replenish their food sources at the auction, and Nick edges out Alecia in the immunity challenge once again. Amber is well-insulated with Elisabeth and Rodger, and Nick and Alecia continue their alliance, leaving Tina and Varner un-aligned but in the swing vote position. Tina sides with the former, and so does Varner due to being close with Rodger:

Varner --> Alecia

Tina --> Alecia

Amber --> Alecia

Elisabeth --> Alecia

Rodger --> Alecia

Nick --> Tina

Alecia --> Tina

leaving Nick on the very bottom of The Australian Outback. Episode twelve rolls around, and Varner wins reward, followed by Amber winning immunity. The main Kucha alliance still holds control of the game, but the decision is between keeping the alliance strong or voting out a core alliance threat:

Varner --> Nick

Tina --> Nick

Amber --> Nick

Elisabeth --> Nick

Rodger --> Nick

Nick --> Tina

and the Kucha three decide on the former, sending Nick out of the game and solidifying their final five alliance. In the final five, Tina wins reward and Varner wins immunity, but it doesn't matter as he is the swing vote between the two halves of the alliance:

Tina --> Elisabeth

Amber --> Elisabeth

Elisabeth --> Tina

Rodger --> Tina

Varner --> Elisabeth

with Varner realizing that Elisabeth is a big threat to win the game due to her likely getting sympathy votes (yes, Varner has a strategy). In episode fourteen, Varner wins the car (curse), and Rodger wins immunity, meaning the alliance has to turn on itself:

Tina --> Varner

Amber --> Varner

Rodger --> Tina

Varner --> Tina

and with the countback twist no longer existing, Amber and Rodger can unanimously decide or draw rocks, and Rodger switches his vote to Varner:

Amber --> Varner

Rodger --> Varner

sending him home as the penultimate jury member. In the finale, Tina wins due to knowing the most about the jury members, and chooses to sit next to Rodger at final tribal due to him being much less of a strategic threat than Amber and mostly a goat:

Tina --> Amber

so Tina and Rodger pitch their cases to the jury, Tina's about her strategic maneuvering despite being in the minority and Rodger about loyalty. I also want to try something fun and reveal the votes in the way they would be on TV:

Colby --> Tina

"Your game has been so good, and if I would have wanted anyone to win besides me, it would have been you."

Elisabeth --> Rodger

"You did such a great job both in the game and in explaining your game at tribal, and I couldn't be rooting for you more."

Varner --> Rodger

"Rodger. Two votes Rodger"

Keith --> Tina

"Tina. We're tied. Two votes Tina, two votes Rodger."

Nick --> Tina

"Tina. Three votes Tina."

Amber --> Tina

"The winner of Survivor: The Australian Outback...Tina! The last one is yours as well."

So, once again, we have the exact same winner, and I think that speaks to the versatility and adaptability of both games. I mean, Tina was so, so, likeable, and her connection to Amber allows her to get in with the Kucha majority. As in her original game, she stays under the radar, and is able to outspeak her opponent at final tribal after taking out her biggest threat in Amber. It's a very different game with very different personalities and deep runs, but the endgame is similar. Tina deserved to win in 2001, and she deserves to win it now...