Australian Open Quarterfinal Power Ranking

The 2025 Australian Open has been super interesting thus far, and despite many seeded players making the later stages of the tournament, tons of history has been made. From the NextGen ATP Finals trend, in which six of the eight players qualified for the main draw, five notched at least one win, and four notched top-15 victories. Novak Djokovic has had a resurgence after not winning a single title last year (except for the Olympic Gold Medal), recovering from a shaky first two rounds to dominate a pair of seeded Czechs in straight sets. Sinner has battled through illness and a doping case while Alcaraz has cruised, two Americans remain in the last eight men, and an unseeded Italian continues to wage war against the seeds.

On the Women’s side, all unseeded players have been eliminated, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been upsets. Belinda Bencic and Naomi Osaka, both of whom were unseeded and recently returned from maternity leave, battled in the third round, and Bencic almost went on to upset Gauff. Five of the top ten players have gone down to players outside the top 15. While Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Gauff have soared, Svitolina has had a resurgence and Lys won three more matches than she thought she would.

Now, with only 16 total players remaining in the singles draws, let’s rank them based on how they’ve performed and how likely they are to win the championship.

16: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Pavlyuchenkova is not by any means the weakest player remaining, but she is playing the defending champion, who could currently be the hottest player in the world. Pavlyuchenkova is third out of the final eight in aces, but she has served up 12 double faults in just four matches. Vekic had FIVE break points against her, only one less than Pavlyuchenkova, but was unlucky to convert none of them. She gave up three break points to Siegemund and 11 to Popatova, who converted on SEVEN breaks. While she has been back to form and will return to the top 25, her chances at getting past Sabalenka, Gauff, and Swiatek in a row are way too low to put her higher.

15: Lorenzo Sonego

It’s been a great run for Sonego, but he can’t win this tournament. He hasn’t made things easy for himself, dropping at least set in each match and playing only unseeded players. He ended the runs of two super hot NextGen talents, but both were exhausted and Fonseca took him to five. He has hit 59 aces, the most among remaining players, but has also hit 14 double faults, the third most. He has been clinical on points where he made his first serve but has only won the sixth most points on return out of remaining players. Sonego is clearly returning to form and may be firmly established as a seed by the end of this, with beating Ben Shelton a possibility, but he’s just not good enough to beat any of the top players in Melbourne.

14: Emma Navarro

This one is very interesting, as Navarro was my pick to reach the final in Melbourne before the tournament started. Now I don’t see any way she can win or even make the final. If Navarro made the semifinals, she would either have Svitolina or Keys, who I believe she could defeat. However, Swiatek has looked unstoppable and Navarro will have to run out of stamina at some point. Navarro has needed three close sets to close out all four of her first week victories, and although she’s one of the fittest players on the tour, she only has a limited amount of tennis in her before her body gives out. Swiatek has barely had any time on court, winning her last two matches 6-0 6-1, including a third-round victory over former US Open champion Raducanu, and losing just 12 games. If Navarro gets past Swiatek, I would assume she could win the tournament, but the Pole has looked unstoppable.

13: Tommy Paul

The No. 2 American and future top-10 player has had strong showings since his first-round scare by hometown hero O’Connel. After surviving the marathon match, Paul dispatched Nishikori in four sets and has won nine straight sets. Paul is playing his best tennis and is hoping to equal his best result at a major: a semifinal appearance in Melbourne two years ago. However, the strong-serving Zverev stands in his way, determined to bring home his first major after coming close multiple times at grand slams in 2024. Paul will have to be at his best, placing accurate shots and moving Sascha around the court. If I were him, I would call up the only American ranked higher than him, Taylor Fritz, who mastered the art of defeating the World No. 2 in the back half of 2024. If Paul can get past Zverev, he will likely face Alcaraz or Djokovic before a questionable Sinner in the final. 

12: Elina Svitolina

The Ukrainian defeated her ninth Russian opponent in a row in the Round of 16 and will now try to reach her first career Australian Open semifinal. Svitolina has largely cruised through the first four rounds with the exception of her battle against World No. 4 Jasmine Paolini, who she beat 6-0 in the third set. However, she is still a questionable pick due to her terrible injury in the second half of the 2024 season, and her ankle could still become a problem at any moment. She faces a tough opponent in Keys, who also has experience battling through tough battles deep into majors. This game is a toss-up, but I don’t think Svitolina is good enough to potentially defeat Swiatek in the semis and Gauff or Sabalenka in the final.

11: Alex de Minaur

As a de Minaur fan, this one hurts. He has finally reached his goal of a quarterfinal in front of his home fans after heartbreak in the past three years, and as a reward he will face the World No. 1 Jannik Sinner. Sinner has never lost to de Minaur, and the Aussie has only managed to take a single set in one of their nine outings. On any good day, Sinner should be able to cakewalk, but this aren’t normal circumstances. In his Round of 16 match against Holger Rune, Sinner became overheated and seemed to be suffering from an illness. In front of his home crowd with Sinner not at his best, this may be de Minaur’s best chance to defeat the Italian and reach a maiden grand slam semifinal with his nation on his back. However, despite all of my de Minaur hope and hype, his odds of a win are not great. Demon has served terribly, with under 50% of his first serves going in and double faults galore, and the title is still out of reach at the moment.

10: Paula Badosa

Badosa is stronger than a few of the players above her, but her draw is brutal. Tonight she will play Gauff, who hasn’t lost a match since before the WTA Finals in the beginning of November. If she survives, she plays World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion. Then, if she somehow wins that, she likely faces No. 2 Iga Swiatek, who is hungrier than ever to win the title in Melbourne. No stats are needed, that path demonstrates things just fine.

9: Madison Keys

Keys has plenty of experience with deep runs at majors, and almost defeated Sabalenka at the US Open semifinals in 2023. She is hoping to reach her seventh major semifinal and will be the favorite when she lines up across the court from Svitolina. Her serve speed is second among quarterfinalist only behind Gauff, she has a high 72% first serve percentage, and she has pounced on opponents’ second serves. However, she is not at the level of Swiatek, Gauff, and Sabalenka at the moment, and if she defeats Svitolina her run will likely end there. 

8: Ben Shelton

Shelton has potentially drawn gold on his path to the final. His section of the draw has been pretty simple so far, and his only real challenge was Musetti, who he overcame pretty easily. Shelton’s serve has only gotten better, and he has served 47 aces and is fourth in serve speed to prove it. This ranking truly only depends on Jannik Sinner. If Sinner is indeed questionable and not at his best, either de Minaur or Shelton may end up taking advantage to advance to the final. If not, Shelton is likely doomed due to Sinner’s talent and form on the hard courts. 

7: Novak Djokovic

The top 7 are a different level than the rest, and that is demonstrated simply by the fact that the ten-time champion is all the way down here. Djokovic has not been himself over the past twelve months, and hasn’t won a tournament since 2023 (except for the Olympics of course). In the first two rounds, Djokovic stumbled to victories over weak opponents, but then diverted course to take out two seeded Czechs in the third and fourth rounds. Now Djokovic faces a familiar foe in Carlos Alcaraz, who will almost certainly want revenge for the Olympic final. If Nole can get past Carlitos, he will likely face Sascha, who I would favor him against, and Sinner, who I don’t believe Djokovic can beat. As I said, any of these top 7 can win the whole thing, so Djokovic is certainly in the conversation.

6: Alexander Zverev

Sascha is still hunting for that elusive first major and has a good chance of winning it here in Melbourne. He has breezed through what was arguably the easiest draw of any top player and should defeat Tommy Paul in the quarters, whether he takes the easy or hard way out. Sascha may then face Alcaraz, who he played in last year’s quarterfinals and the final at Roland Garros, and a potentially sick Sinner. Zverev definitely has the tools to end the drought, but his serve hasn’t been perfectly on point, which he’ll need to fix if he wants any chance at defeating his fellow top players. 

5: Iga Swiatek

Swiatek is so, so, so talented and is so hot at the moment but I don’t fancy her against the players above her. Swiatek has been dominant so far in her run through the tournament and hasn’t dropped a set (she’s only dropped twelve games). She defeated US Open Champion Emma Raducanu 6-0 6-1 and then beat Eva Lys by the same scoreline to set up a clash with Navarro. Swiatek should be able to reach the final due to her advantage in time on court (her matches have been far shorter than Navarro’s) and will set up a tasty matchup with Sabalenka or Gauf (or Badosa or Pavlyuchenkova I guess). This isn’t Swiatek’s main surface and she tends to be weaker than her two rivals on the surface, so I’ll back her to be a finalist.

4: Carlos Alcaraz

You can tell just how tight this list is when Carlos Alcaraz, yes the four time major champion, is fourth. Carlos has yet to take home the title in Melbourne and is going for the youngest career slam in tennis history. He has a tough battle with Novak, who knows him very well, in the quarters. He then is likely to face Zverev and Sinner to end the tournament, which is no easy pair of victories. Alcaraz will have to be extremely resilient and minimize his time on court if he wants to win the title, as Sinner and Zverev are both excellent hard-court players and this is Carlos’s weakest surface. I definitely wouldn’t be shocked at all if he won the title though.

3: Coco Gauff

Just when you think this list can’t get any crazier, you see the talented American at number three, two spots below where you think she should go. Just like with Alcaraz, I honestly have as much faith in her winning than not winning at this point, and the top of this list is really, really hard to make. The only thing that keeps Gauff below the two above her is that she hasn’t proven herself in Melbourne yet. She won the US Open in 2023 and is on a tear since November but hasn’t won this title twice in a row.

2: Jannik Sinner

If he wasn’t sick, dizzy, or whatever happened to him against Rune on Monday night, I would put Sinner at number one. Sinner is already guaranteed to keep his No. 1 ranking even if he were to lose to de Minaur in the quarters, but the doping scandal still looms over every match he plays. He has been gifted a simple path to the final, although de Minaur will test his lung power, and if healthy will be favored over whoever reaches the championship from the bloodbath on the other side. Sinner showed just how good he can be even when illness impeded him, defeating the young and very talented Dane. If Sinner ends up being healthy, there’s likely no stopping him; every metric points towards him.

1: Aryna Sabalenka

At the moment, Sabalenka looks like she has been the best and has the best chance of a title. She has quietly taken care of business in each of the first four rounds in just two sets and destroyed fourteenth-ranked Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2. Sabalenka shouldn’t have much trouble with Pavlyuchenkova despite having the disadvantage in head-to-head, and her showdown with Gauff will be huge. Coco’s serve is incredible, and she leads the tournament in aces and first serve speed, but Sabalenka is a master at returns and should be able to upset Gauff’s rhythm. I expect Sabalenka to take care of business in an uneventful final victory over Swiatek, but this is a toss-up.

Is the gap between the Prem and the Championship larger than ever?

While many are focusing on the top of the Premier League at the moment, where Liverpool lead, Chelsea and Arsenal trail, and seven points separate a tight table between fifth and fourteenth, the relegation battle has ended up looking just as intriguing. While Southampton have almost certainly been vanquished with only six points from 18 matches, five points separate 19th-place Ipswich from 15th-place Everton. However, the bottom three are Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton, the same three teams who were promoted from the Championship last season. If those three are relegated, it will mark only the third time in the history of the Premier League that the three promoted sides are relegated, but the second in a row. So, is the Premier League separating further from the Championship and the rest of English football every season, or have the teams who have been promoted just been unlucky/terrible?

Revenue/Financial Benefits:

The Premier League is a dream for all clubs in England, and those who are able to make it are rewarded with extremely lucrative broadcasting, sponsorship, and commercial opportunities to finance the club. Teams who arrive in the Premier League often find themselves outmatched by the clubs who have been there for years, mostly because the longer a club remains in the league, the longer they have to reap the financial benefits and sign top talent. For example, when Luton Town arrived last season, their team was mostly Championship or League One quality players, and even the aid of Premier League financials couldn’t save a late push for safety. Premier League clubs earn about 300 million pounds a season compared to 66 million for those who were recently relegated to the Championship and 22 million for those who weren’t. Premier League talent is often higher than 22 or even 66 million pounds, especially with prices for elite strikers inflating at record high speed, showcasing that newly promoted clubs don’t have access to the players required to stay up. In 2021-22, Burnley finished 18th with 35 points, only being sent down to the Championship on Matchday 38. In 2023-24, they finished in 19th with 24 points, relegated on the penultimate matchday. Leicester City has a storied history in the Premier League, including multiple trips to Europe and a league title, but was relegated in 18th place on 34 points, one off of Everton in 2022-23. A season later, after winning the Championship title, they are on pace for only 29 points and relegation. It is clear that a season in the Championship makes a difference, as the revenue is nowhere near the Premier League’s even with a parachute.

Finding Talent:

More clubs in the Premier League are looking for young and cheap talent to develop for a profit, which is a problem for teams in the Championship. Many second-tier clubs have to scout for talent and take risks because they can’t afford those already established as the world’s best. Players from lower leagues in Europe, South America, and all over the world flocked to the Championship. Now, with teams like Brighton and Brentford promoted and safe in the Premier League, the former Championship-exclusive strategy has leaked into the top flight. Every transfer window, it becomes more common to see Premier League clubs poach talent that is close to signing for a Championship team than not. Jarrod Bowen, James Madison, Jack Grealish, and Ivan Toney all headed to clubs who were Premier League-bound or established in the top flight.

It’s safe to say that the gap between the two divisions is widening, due to the abilities to find, pay for, and develop talent that Premier League clubs have. However, it is safe to say that some of the teams who have come up have been historically bad, so it may not just be for that reason. Sheffield United allowed a record 104 goals on the way to 16 points, the third-worst total in league history. Nottingham Forest only achieved 32 points last season, the lowest points total ever for a surviving team. Southampton are on pace for about 13 points this season, which would be the second-worst total in history behind Derby County.

How can the Yankees prevent Soto's new squad from outshining them?

Now that Juan Soto went across the East River to Queens, there are plenty of questions about how the Yankees can again solidify themselves as World Series contenders for the 2025 season. With Judge at right, Dominguez at center, Volpe at second, Wells at catcher, Stanton at DH, a now-solidified rotation with the huge signing of Max Fried, and utility man Jazz Chisholm Jr, the Yankees must figure out how to fill the gaps with the money they saved from missing out on Soto Sunday night. Let’s go through the options on the table for the Yanks to create the team most likely to return to November next year.

First Base:

The only position that seems to be unfixable through the players the Yankees currently have seems to be first base. While they have the option to re-sign Rizzo, who was out with injury and wasn’t the same as prior seasons, develop Ben Rice, a player who started in place of Rizzo for parts of the season, or deploy former batting champion DJ Lemahieu, who has not performed well in recent seasons, the Yankees will likely look outside of their own organization to find a first baseman. With Soto’s move to the Mets clearing up space for new purchases, the Yankees may try to fight for a shorter-term deal with 34-year-old Christian Walker or a mid-length deal for slugger Pete Alonso, who may feel Soto will outshine him if he returns to Queens next year. If the Yankees are hoping for a slugger who doesn’t get on base quite as much, they can look to Seattle’s free agent Ty France, a thirty-year-old who may be able to produce some of the home runs Yankee Stadium will be craving with Soto’s absence. We don’t know what Steinbrenner and Cashman are cooking, but it will likely involve at least fighting hard to sign a new first baseman to strengthen the bottom of the lineup. However, staying away from these types of power hitters may be advantageous for the Yankees as many of their expected vs actual and advanced statistics show them overperforming their true value.

Second Base:

To me, this is one of the easiest decisions to make for the Yankees. Torres had a stellar year in the Bronx, adding to his career 2023 season, and although he slightly outperformed his expected and advanced metrics, the argument for a decent deal to stay is very compelling. He has gotten much better at not chasing balls outside of the strike zone and thus his strikeout rates remain in the top percentiles of the league. He has improved his reputation of making a lot of errors and fielding mishaps, lowering his OAA by two but playing almost 100 more innings than last year. If the Yankees miss this opportunity, they can always put utility man Chisholm at second, but he is much more valuable at the Yanks’ vulnerable positions like third and left. 

Third Base:

If the Yankees decide to stick with their options and not attempt to trade for a third baseman, they will end up with Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the position but a gap at left field. Especially if they decide not to go for a left fielder (or even first baseman), the Yankees will have to consider signing a free agent or trading for a third baseman. The obvious choice for a free agent is Bregman, who is miles ahead of the rest of the free agent class of 2024-25 in accolades. Bregman had a career-high WAR of 4.1 and hit 26 HR (highest in five years). However, his biggest improvement was on the defensive side, earning his first career Gold Glove award at third base thanks to an impressive six outs above average, in the 91st percentile for all major leaguers this season. The Yankees have already pivoted towards Bregman this week and due to their high budget, they have to be determined to steal him from their biggest rival in the past decade. The Cardinals have also expressed interest in trading away third baseman Nolan Arenado, which is another offer the Yankees have on their radar. His strikeout percentage went down and his walk percentage went up, albeit not dramatically. However, he continues his long stretch of fielding dominance, only losing to now five-time Gold Glove winner Matt Chapman of the Giants. Although Arenado once again lost the award, he had a much improved defensive campaign from last season’s dreadful performance and returned to his typical numbers. 

Left/Center Field:

Considering that Jasson Dominguez can play either position, it is safe to say that whichever position he’s not utilized for will be open for new talent from outside the organization. While the Yankees can fill up their outfield with Dominguez, Judge, and Chisholm, the latter is needed much more in the infield in the case of a gap at second or third base. Kyle Tucker had a career year in 2023, finishing fifth in MVP voting, winning his first Silver Slugger award, and almost winning the Gold Glove. Sidelined by injury for most of 2024, he still accumulated stats worthy of a large deal and a bidding war by World Series contenders. If the Yankees land Bregman, they obviously won’t be able to grab Tucker from Houston as well, and vice versa, but he’s still a strong option for a trade or a free-agent snag next season. Cody Bellinger started his career at the same level as Judge but hasn’t had the same success, ending up as a Cub after a relatively unsuccessful time with the Dodgers after his rookie and MVP seasons. Bellinger has had a turbulent career due to his inconsistencies, but his fielding has always been solid and unfortunate injuries have been a main cause of decline in the past couple of years. However, the Yankees hope to shift Judge back to right field, and signing Bellinger would achieve that and pair up the 2017 Rookies of the Year. The question is whether or not the Yankees would be willing to give up some talent, including Stroman, who the Cubs apparently want if they are going to trade Bellinger away.