Papaya Preeminence, Piastri vs Norris, and predictions for the streets and castles of Baku

It's been a fortnight since we raced at the Temple of Speed, and it's time to move to an environment that couldn't be more different. The Baku Street Circuit in Azerbaijan is set to host the 17th instalment of the 2025 F1 season this weekend, with the cars weaving through tight corners and battling down long straights surrounded by a port city and historical castle. With McLaren having a chance to clinch their spot at the top of the constructors’ standings and Oscar Piastri hoping to pull away from his teammate in the drivers', this should be an impactful race this season.

In this article, I'll recap what happened in Monza, discuss the first two Free Practice sessions from Baku, and share my predictions for the podium finishers. I'll also present five bold hot takes and analyze the potential winners and losers as we look ahead to this intriguing race.

What happened at the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?

The 2025 Italian Grand Prix at the historical Monza track featured an unexpected (was it REALLY unexpected) winner. Red Bull's Max Verstappen broke through the Papaya barrier to claim his third grand prix victory of the season, including the Italian double with his win at Imola. But it wasn't his victory on Sunday that set the main headline, it was what he did on Saturday. In Qualifying, Max Verstappen set the fastest lap in F1 history, yes HISTORY, by average speed around the circuit. Now it's not surprising that this came at Monza, but Verstappen now has the fastest average speed lap in F1 history. He converted pole to a win with plenty of drama in between.

Verstappen went off at turn one with the Papayas in hot pursuit, but in typical Max style, he kept his lead, although he was forced to give his position back to Norris. Verstappen regained the lead on the fourth lap and held it for the remainder of the race (with exception of his pit stop), with Norris and Piastri in second and third for the majority of the race. Norris had a slow pit stop, sparking controversy which resulted in McLaren ordering Piastri to give up his position to Norris for the fairness of the title race.

Ferrari and Mercedes were able to get both drivers in the points, with Albon in seventh, Bortoletto claiming one of the results of his rookie campaign in eighth, and Hadjar scoring back-to-back points in 10th.

Free Practice Sessions 1 and 2

As teams took to Monza, the first two free practice sessions provided key data on car performance and setups.

Free Practice 1

FP1 was dominated by the McLarens, with Norris running a 1:42:704 and Piastri just about three tenths of a second behind. Williams pushed both cars into the top 10 and Red Bull impressively had all four of its cars in the top 10 as well. The Alpines continued to struggle in Free Practices as they finished 19th (COL) and 20th (GAS) with both cars over two seconds off the Briton's pace, and Haas and Aston Martin continued to struggle as well.

Free Practice 2

Free Practice 2 was much more interesting, with the McLarens in 10th and 12th. Hamilton looked to be his old self with a 1:41:293 lap for Ferrari, with Leclerc just seventy hundreths of a second behind to complete a Ferrari 1-2. Mercedes impressed by landing its drivers in the next two positions, while Haas was able to bring both drivers up from the back of the grid to the top eight. Gasly improved in the Alpine up to 16th, but Colapinto was again over two seconds behind the leader. Aston Martin placed its drivers in 17th and 19th, which was a dissapointing follow-up to their terrible FP1.

Podium Predictions

With insights from the Italian Grand Prix and the practice sessions, here are my predictions for the podium finishers at the 2025 Italian Grand Prix:

1. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

   
   

2. George Russel (Mercedes)

   
   

3. Carlos Sainz (Williams)

   
   

Five Spicy Hot Takes

Now, let’s spice things up with some bold hot takes for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, rated from 1 to 5 spicy pepper emojis:

1. 🌶️ - The pole sitter will not win. I believe Piastri will take pole in Baku. He won the race a year ago and knows how to race a quick lap around the circuit. Now, let's not count out the 4-time defending pole sitter Charles Leclerc, but Baku has plenty of turns that benefit the downforce on this year's McLaren.

   
   

2. 🌶️🌶️ - There will be a red flag. As you'll see in some of the spicier takes, I have a very good reason for a red flag and standing start. However, Baku can always be counted on for a safety car and a chaotic race, so if there is a massive crash or collision in one of the narrower parts of the track, we could very well be in for a standing start midway through the race.

   
   

3. 🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Ferrari will win their first grand prix of the season. It is time for Ferrari. It is time for Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque has been on pole for the last four years, but has never converted it into a win. He'll qualify fourth behind Piastri, Norris, and Russel, pass Russel early, sit in third for most of the race, and pass the McLarens to win his first Azerbaijan Grand Prix. If he takes pole he won't win, but what if he doesn't take pole?

   
   

4. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - Ferrari bromance on the podium. No, I'm not talking about Leclerc's new teammate Lewis Hamilton, I'm talking about the smoothest operator on the grid. Former Scuderia driver Carlos Sainz will capitalize on a low-Q3 starting position and slowly move up the grid. With chaos always on the horizon in Baku, Sainz can weave through the field and finish on his first podium in the Williams and add to their cushion for fifth in the constructors' championship and get a bit closer to his teammate in the drivers' standings.

   
   

5. 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ - McLaren will fail to finish as their drivers will crash into each other fighting for the drivers' championship. This would be a shocker. McLaren have been so good all year, and their drivers have been very consistent with not racing each other and finishing each and every race. However, with both drivers starting to feel the pressure and sense the title, the stakes are beginning to get higher. The McLarens will be fighting for the win in the middle-to-late stages of the race and suddenly, the constructors' dreams will have to wait yet another week.

   
   

Winners and Losers

As we approach the Italian Grand Prix, here’s my analysis of potential winners and losers:

Winner: Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

There are a few drivers in my predictions that could go here, but I think this would mean the most to Leclerc. He's sat in pole for the past four Azerbaijan Grand Prix but has been unable to win, and has only produced a podium twice out of the four attempts. He must have some sort of mental blocker and self-confidence issue after failing four times, and winning in Baku would be huge not only to his racing at this Grand Prix in the future but also for his confidence in the Ferrari for the rest of the season and with the new regulations. He's yet to win this season, so it would definitely boost his view on the year and the team if he could win here.

Loser: Lando Norris (McLaren)

Well, let's just say either Papaya driver could go in here. If both McLarens crash out, though, it would damage Norris much more. Piastri currently has a solid 31 point lead in the drivers' championship over his teammate, so if both cars crash out, Norris loses a race to catch up to Piastri. Norris' worst-case scenario is a DNF or non-points finish while his teammate wins, but a double-DNF isn't much better.

Winner: Williams

If Carlos Sainz finishes on the podium, it would be an excellent weekend for Williams. They haven't been running as well in Free Practice as they usually do, but Albon has still been producing excellent results in the past few races. If Williams can sneak both cars, or at least one car, into Q3, which they haven't been able to do for the past few races, it would be huge for Sunday as anything can happen in Baku to move drivers up the grid. Albon has been turning mid starting positions into great finishes, and if Sainz can do the same, Williams are in for a big weekend.

Loser: McLaren

Hello! If my prediction comes true, who else could be the loser? A zero-point weekend coupled with a Ferrari win would be a nightmare for the Papayas. Although their lead in the constructors' is practically insurmountable, McLaren will want to have the title wrapped up by the end of this weekend to focus on the drivers' championship battle between their two drivers and the new regulations for 2026. Delaying another week is the worst possible scenario.

Entertainment Guaranteed

The 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix is shaping up to be an intriguing race packed with one title potentially decided, another just heating up, and plenty of storylines. McLaren’s strength, the intense rivalry between Piastri and Norris, and the threats from Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari all make for an enthralling showdown at one of F1's most unique tracks. As teams prepare at Baku, fans eagerly anticipate which driver will emerge victorious in this perpetually entertaining event.

Get ready for a riveting weekend of safety cars, potentially rain, long straights, and tight corners, and may the best driver take the checkered flag in Baku!