Is the gap between the Prem and the Championship larger than ever?

While many are focusing on the top of the Premier League at the moment, where Liverpool lead, Chelsea and Arsenal trail, and seven points separate a tight table between fifth and fourteenth, the relegation battle has ended up looking just as intriguing. While Southampton have almost certainly been vanquished with only six points from 18 matches, five points separate 19th-place Ipswich from 15th-place Everton. However, the bottom three are Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton, the same three teams who were promoted from the Championship last season. If those three are relegated, it will mark only the third time in the history of the Premier League that the three promoted sides are relegated, but the second in a row. So, is the Premier League separating further from the Championship and the rest of English football every season, or have the teams who have been promoted just been unlucky/terrible?

Revenue/Financial Benefits:

The Premier League is a dream for all clubs in England, and those who are able to make it are rewarded with extremely lucrative broadcasting, sponsorship, and commercial opportunities to finance the club. Teams who arrive in the Premier League often find themselves outmatched by the clubs who have been there for years, mostly because the longer a club remains in the league, the longer they have to reap the financial benefits and sign top talent. For example, when Luton Town arrived last season, their team was mostly Championship or League One quality players, and even the aid of Premier League financials couldn’t save a late push for safety. Premier League clubs earn about 300 million pounds a season compared to 66 million for those who were recently relegated to the Championship and 22 million for those who weren’t. Premier League talent is often higher than 22 or even 66 million pounds, especially with prices for elite strikers inflating at record high speed, showcasing that newly promoted clubs don’t have access to the players required to stay up. In 2021-22, Burnley finished 18th with 35 points, only being sent down to the Championship on Matchday 38. In 2023-24, they finished in 19th with 24 points, relegated on the penultimate matchday. Leicester City has a storied history in the Premier League, including multiple trips to Europe and a league title, but was relegated in 18th place on 34 points, one off of Everton in 2022-23. A season later, after winning the Championship title, they are on pace for only 29 points and relegation. It is clear that a season in the Championship makes a difference, as the revenue is nowhere near the Premier League’s even with a parachute.

Finding Talent:

More clubs in the Premier League are looking for young and cheap talent to develop for a profit, which is a problem for teams in the Championship. Many second-tier clubs have to scout for talent and take risks because they can’t afford those already established as the world’s best. Players from lower leagues in Europe, South America, and all over the world flocked to the Championship. Now, with teams like Brighton and Brentford promoted and safe in the Premier League, the former Championship-exclusive strategy has leaked into the top flight. Every transfer window, it becomes more common to see Premier League clubs poach talent that is close to signing for a Championship team than not. Jarrod Bowen, James Madison, Jack Grealish, and Ivan Toney all headed to clubs who were Premier League-bound or established in the top flight.

It’s safe to say that the gap between the two divisions is widening, due to the abilities to find, pay for, and develop talent that Premier League clubs have. However, it is safe to say that some of the teams who have come up have been historically bad, so it may not just be for that reason. Sheffield United allowed a record 104 goals on the way to 16 points, the third-worst total in league history. Nottingham Forest only achieved 32 points last season, the lowest points total ever for a surviving team. Southampton are on pace for about 13 points this season, which would be the second-worst total in history behind Derby County.

How can the Yankees prevent Soto's new squad from outshining them?

Now that Juan Soto went across the East River to Queens, there are plenty of questions about how the Yankees can again solidify themselves as World Series contenders for the 2025 season. With Judge at right, Dominguez at center, Volpe at second, Wells at catcher, Stanton at DH, a now-solidified rotation with the huge signing of Max Fried, and utility man Jazz Chisholm Jr, the Yankees must figure out how to fill the gaps with the money they saved from missing out on Soto Sunday night. Let’s go through the options on the table for the Yanks to create the team most likely to return to November next year.

First Base:

The only position that seems to be unfixable through the players the Yankees currently have seems to be first base. While they have the option to re-sign Rizzo, who was out with injury and wasn’t the same as prior seasons, develop Ben Rice, a player who started in place of Rizzo for parts of the season, or deploy former batting champion DJ Lemahieu, who has not performed well in recent seasons, the Yankees will likely look outside of their own organization to find a first baseman. With Soto’s move to the Mets clearing up space for new purchases, the Yankees may try to fight for a shorter-term deal with 34-year-old Christian Walker or a mid-length deal for slugger Pete Alonso, who may feel Soto will outshine him if he returns to Queens next year. If the Yankees are hoping for a slugger who doesn’t get on base quite as much, they can look to Seattle’s free agent Ty France, a thirty-year-old who may be able to produce some of the home runs Yankee Stadium will be craving with Soto’s absence. We don’t know what Steinbrenner and Cashman are cooking, but it will likely involve at least fighting hard to sign a new first baseman to strengthen the bottom of the lineup. However, staying away from these types of power hitters may be advantageous for the Yankees as many of their expected vs actual and advanced statistics show them overperforming their true value.

Second Base:

To me, this is one of the easiest decisions to make for the Yankees. Torres had a stellar year in the Bronx, adding to his career 2023 season, and although he slightly outperformed his expected and advanced metrics, the argument for a decent deal to stay is very compelling. He has gotten much better at not chasing balls outside of the strike zone and thus his strikeout rates remain in the top percentiles of the league. He has improved his reputation of making a lot of errors and fielding mishaps, lowering his OAA by two but playing almost 100 more innings than last year. If the Yankees miss this opportunity, they can always put utility man Chisholm at second, but he is much more valuable at the Yanks’ vulnerable positions like third and left. 

Third Base:

If the Yankees decide to stick with their options and not attempt to trade for a third baseman, they will end up with Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the position but a gap at left field. Especially if they decide not to go for a left fielder (or even first baseman), the Yankees will have to consider signing a free agent or trading for a third baseman. The obvious choice for a free agent is Bregman, who is miles ahead of the rest of the free agent class of 2024-25 in accolades. Bregman had a career-high WAR of 4.1 and hit 26 HR (highest in five years). However, his biggest improvement was on the defensive side, earning his first career Gold Glove award at third base thanks to an impressive six outs above average, in the 91st percentile for all major leaguers this season. The Yankees have already pivoted towards Bregman this week and due to their high budget, they have to be determined to steal him from their biggest rival in the past decade. The Cardinals have also expressed interest in trading away third baseman Nolan Arenado, which is another offer the Yankees have on their radar. His strikeout percentage went down and his walk percentage went up, albeit not dramatically. However, he continues his long stretch of fielding dominance, only losing to now five-time Gold Glove winner Matt Chapman of the Giants. Although Arenado once again lost the award, he had a much improved defensive campaign from last season’s dreadful performance and returned to his typical numbers. 

Left/Center Field:

Considering that Jasson Dominguez can play either position, it is safe to say that whichever position he’s not utilized for will be open for new talent from outside the organization. While the Yankees can fill up their outfield with Dominguez, Judge, and Chisholm, the latter is needed much more in the infield in the case of a gap at second or third base. Kyle Tucker had a career year in 2023, finishing fifth in MVP voting, winning his first Silver Slugger award, and almost winning the Gold Glove. Sidelined by injury for most of 2024, he still accumulated stats worthy of a large deal and a bidding war by World Series contenders. If the Yankees land Bregman, they obviously won’t be able to grab Tucker from Houston as well, and vice versa, but he’s still a strong option for a trade or a free-agent snag next season. Cody Bellinger started his career at the same level as Judge but hasn’t had the same success, ending up as a Cub after a relatively unsuccessful time with the Dodgers after his rookie and MVP seasons. Bellinger has had a turbulent career due to his inconsistencies, but his fielding has always been solid and unfortunate injuries have been a main cause of decline in the past couple of years. However, the Yankees hope to shift Judge back to right field, and signing Bellinger would achieve that and pair up the 2017 Rookies of the Year. The question is whether or not the Yankees would be willing to give up some talent, including Stroman, who the Cubs apparently want if they are going to trade Bellinger away.

Put down my money for Slot, but not the ones in Vegas

A month ago, anyone watching the Premier League that is not an Arsenal fan thought it would be a two-horse race between Manchester City and Liverpool for the title. They had just lost to Bournemouth and Newcastle away between a draw at the Emirates with Liverpool. 

But now everyone wonders if the title is decided only a day into December, six months before Matchday 38 and the end of the season. Manchester City have lost four consecutive Premier League matches for the first time in the Guardiola era. That’s as many titles as they’ve won in a row! Let’s first unpack the numbers behind the title challengers (Arsenal, Chelsea, etc.) before discussing City’s downfall and Liverpool’s dominance.

Arteta’s Arsenal emptyhanded again?

Arsenal have been in excellent form in their past couple of games, scoring ten goals in their past two matches against West Ham and Sporting and not having lost since November 6th to Inter in the Champions League. While they have been in good form and finishing their chances well, they appear far from Liverpool, potentially too far back. Despite being in second place, they are a whopping nine points behind leaders Liverpool. Arsenal are towards the top end of strength of schedule so far with their next being Brighton, Tottenham, or Aston Villa in January, but Liverpool aren’t far behind with their only true tests being Newcastle and Tottenham before a rematch with Forest in mid-January and an Etihad clash in late-Februrary. Arsenal dominated possession against Newcastle with 64% but only managed a single shot on target, losing 1-0. Even down to ten men against Bournemouth, they held the majority of possession and managed one shot on target, which again they could not convert in a 2-0 loss. Even in matches where they have been scoring loads of goals, they have allowed far too many shots on goal. At London Stadium this past Saturday, Arsenal held 60% of possession and allowed seven shots on goal, lucky that only two went in. The xG stats don’t help Arsenal’s case, as they underperformed their own xG against Chelsea, Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Southampton, all in the Premier League in the past two months. While the recent fix of form will give a spark of hope, it looks like Arsenal are not ready for a title this year.

Champions League Chelsea are back

Chelsea definitely don’t look like Premier Leauge champions, but this is a huge improvement from being clowned for a 12th place finish a couple of years ago. This Chelsea team looks very different and are playing well against other talented teams like Newcastle, Arsenal, and even Liverpool. While the game against Leicester was very close, Chelsea have looked strong against some of the contenders, like Aston Villa, and pretenders, like Wolves. A UCL finish is looking likely and I’m sure Chelsea fans are satisfied with the football they are playing, led by Cole Palmer (he’s not cold anymore) and a solid defense.

European Challengers

Things under Liverpool are close and even closer under Chelsea and Arsenal, so the European spots could be anybody’s after 13 matches. Brighton have been on a good run of form after finally spending some money this summer and must be happy even after some frustrating lost points against newly promoted sides. They should be back in Europe next season barring a complete collapse and may even challenge for that fourth Champions League position late into the season. Aston Villa have not looked the same since their UCL loss to Club Brugge and are on a long winless streak, but if we know anything about Emery’s Villa, they’ll get their form back soon and challenge for Europe and the top eight of the UCL. Newcastle, Brentford, and Amorim United are rising, while Forest and Leicester fall. Tottenham are back in their doctor role, defeating Manchester City twice and shredding Aston Villa but losing to Ipswich and Crystal Palace, both in the relegation zone. 

Rodri and De Bruyne absences hurting title aspirations

This entire spiral seems to have started with Rodri. The 2024 Ballon d'Or winner has been injured since he tore his ACL in September, leaving a gaping hole in Manchester City’s lineup. While Guardiola has identified targets to replace him in the January window, the problem will remain until then. City had an appropriate replacement for Kevin de Bruyne when he was injured, but now seem out of midfielders after putting in one substitute. Rico Lewis has not been enough to replace Rodri and City will need to find a way to either replace him or create some new tactics to halt the slide as soon as they can. In their four consecutive Premier League losses, City have held far above 50% of possession each time and have only had more shots on goal than their opponent once, when they had two more than Brighton in a 2-1 loss. 

Liverpool look the Real Madrid Deal

Liverpool are unstoppable. If you want to stop them, go talk to Nottingham Forest. If you don’t want to talk to them, you’re in trouble because Forest is the only team that has beaten them. Liverpool look like a perfect team, conquering Manchester City this weekend and drawing at the Emirates in October. Their schedule from here looks promising and they are not likely to drop many points over the next couple of months. The main concern for the rest of the league is whether or not they even drop the nine points they lead by over the rest of the season. With no team in Premier League history coming back from nine points after 13 games, City looking abysmal, and Arsenal and Chelsea not ready for a title challenge, who is going to stop them? City lead the league in xG, xGA, and expected points, along with holding that up with the second-most goals (second only to Tottenham), the least goals allowed, and the most points. The statistics back Liverpool and you’d be a fool not to as well.